Executive Briefing · Stage 1 of 7 · March 2026
A three-tier Advanced Circular Manufacturing™ deployment analysis for Southern Saskatchewan, addressing a dual infrastructure crisis: Moose Jaw's imminent landfill closure with no approved replacement, and Regina's escalating cost and liability burden — with a CAD$48/t saving available from Day 1 of partnership.
Produced by Carbotura Inc. — the interested party. Stage 1 of 7 — Initial Intelligence & Engagement. All financial projections are illustrative and not audited figures. This is not legal, financial, or professional advice. Corrections: media@carbotura.com · Last Reviewed: March 2026
Key Findings — What Council Needs to Know
The Moose Jaw Sanitary Landfill (1802 Caribou St E) is already operating beyond its permitted maximum height (577m → 584m) and will exhaust remaining airspace by approximately August 2029–2030. No approved replacement site exists as of Q1 2026. The RM of Moose Jaw rejected the City's discretionary use application in June 2024 (4–1 vote); annexation proceedings before the Saskatchewan Municipal Board remain unresolved. Within one term of Council, Moose Jaw faces a hard physical constraint with no contracted alternative.
Regina's Fleet Street Landfill carries confirmed and suspected PFAS contamination, as listed in the Federal Contaminated Sites Inventory (2024). Post-closure remediation obligations for PFAS sites typically extend 30–60 years, vastly exceeding current reserve fund balances. This is a long-duration liability exposure that conventional disposal contracts do not resolve.
Regina's disposal rate has risen 19% in four years (CAD$80/t → $95/t, 2022–2026 bylaw). Moose Jaw's non-resident rate surged 41% in three years ($85/t → $120/t), driven by capacity rationing. At the 5.9%/yr baseline corridor escalation rate, the cumulative 30-year manufacturing feedstock disposal expenditure at 1,000 TPD reaches approximately CAD$6.1B in nominal terms — with zero return to ratepayers.
Regina's diversion rate sits at approximately 24% against a stated Council target of 65%. Recycling contamination rates exceed provincial EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility) thresholds, with penalties up to CAD$600,000/year. The Emterra feedstock processing facility at the Global Transportation Hub operates at approximately 50% of its 50,000 t/yr rated capacity, limiting system throughput.
Carbotura's proposed Total Material Conversion (TMC) Fee of CAD$150/t sits CAD$48/t below the corridor's current fully weighted disposal cost average of CAD$198/t. Unlike conventional disposal contracts, the TMC Fee is designed to activate the Circular Royalty™ — engineered to return value beginning 13 months after feedstock delivery commences, at 120% of the annual TMC Fee, escalating 1%/year over 30 years.
Carbotura's Module 1 is engineered for a Q2 2028 commercial operations date (COD) — approximately 18 months before Moose Jaw's ~2029–2030 closure deadline — subject to a non-binding Letter of Intent no later than Q3 2026. No single-stage infrastructure alternative to this disposal crisis has a comparable confirmed delivery timeline.
The March 2025 CUPE Local 21 collective agreement for City of Regina feedstock collection and landfill operations was ratified by only 55% of members — reflecting unresolved purchasing-power concerns. The successor 2026–2028 CBA remains contested, applying upward pressure on the status quo disposal model's operating costs.
Three deployment tiers are available: 100 TPD (illustrative 30-yr community benefit: CAD$794M, ~$220/household/yr), 500 TPD (CAD$2.75B, ~$1,099/household/yr), and 1,000 TPD (CAD$8.25B, ~$2,292/household/yr). The 1,000 TPD configuration is designed to process the corridor's entire current manufacturing feedstock stream. All projections are illustrative and not contractual commitments.
Status Quo vs. Advanced Circular Manufacturing™
The corridor's volume-weighted fully loaded disposal cost average is CAD$198/t (midpoint of $167–$229/t range, per Waste Intelligence Report 2025, Section 12). At the default 5.9%/yr escalation rate, cumulative 30-year expenditure at 1,000 TPD scale reaches approximately CAD$6.1B — entirely lost to legacy disposal infrastructure. Moose Jaw faces a physical capacity cliff in 2029–2030 with no approved alternative site. Regina carries long-duration PFAS liability and a 41-point diversion gap. Every dollar spent under the status quo generates no community return.
[Regina–Moose Jaw Waste Intelligence Report 2025, Section 12] MEDThe proposed TMC Fee of CAD$150/t delivers a CAD$48/t saving from Day 1 of operations. The Circular Royalty™ is designed to return 120% of the annual TMC Fee beginning 13 months after feedstock delivery, escalating at 1%/yr over 30 years. Combined illustrative 30-year community benefit: CAD$794M (100 TPD) to CAD$8.25B (1,000 TPD). Carbotura's modular factory is engineered for near-zero residual and near-zero-emission manufacturing. All projections are illustrative — not audited or contractual commitments.
[Carbotura_ReginaMooseJaw_Combined_4.html, Section C] LOW — illustrative projectionThe 7-Stage Engagement Pathway
Next Steps & Decision Points
Recommended Action — Q3 2026: Carbotura recommends initiating the non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI) process no later than Q3 2026 to protect the Q2 2028 Commercial Operations Date (COD), ahead of Moose Jaw's ~2029–2030 closure deadline. No commitment is made until execution of a signed Circular Offtake Agreement. To initiate Stage 2 discussions: media@carbotura.com
Governing Language: This document is a Stage 1 Partnership Proposal prepared by Carbotura Inc. for illustrative and discussion purposes only. All financial figures, projections, timelines, and benefit estimates are based on Carbotura's standard deployment model applied to publicly available community data. They do not constitute a contractual offer, commitment, or guarantee by Carbotura Inc. or any of its affiliates. Actual terms, capacities, and financial outcomes will be established through the formal engagement process, including execution of a Letter of Intent, Term Sheet, and Circular Offtake Agreement. This is not legal, financial, or professional advice.
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