Economic Impact Report & Partnership Proposal
Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor
A three-tier Advanced Circular Manufacturing™ deployment analysis for Southern Saskatchewan's waste infrastructure crisis — 100, 500, and 1,000 TPD configurations.
Combined Executive Summary
Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor | All figures in Canadian dollars (CAD) | Illustrative projections — not contractual commitments
- The status quo is not sustainable. Moose Jaw's century-old unlined landfill closes 2029–2030 with no approved replacement. Regina's Fleet Street Landfill has ~26 years of capacity but faces escalating PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) liability exposure, a 41-percentage-point diversion gap to its 65% Council target, and recycling contamination penalties of up to CAD$600,000/year.
- Current disposal costs are CAD$198/t and rising. Regina's tipping fee is up 19% over four years; Moose Jaw's is up 24–59% over five years. The 5.9%/year baseline escalation trajectory projects a compounding cost trap with no community return.
- Carbotura proposes a three-tier Advanced Circular Manufacturing (ACM) deployment. All three configurations are 100% Carbotura-financed. The building shell is sized for 1,000 TPD in all tiers; additional modules slot in without new civil construction.
- The TMC Fee is CAD$150/t — CAD$48/t below current weighted disposal cost from Day 1. Unlike legacy disposal contracts, the TMC Fee pays back: the Circular Royalty™ returns 120% of the annual fee beginning in Year 2 and escalates at 1%/year for 30 years.
- All three tiers are net-positive by Year 2. No configuration requires community capital, bonds, or new debt instruments. Under PSAB PS 3390 and PS 3410, the TMC Fee is an operating expenditure and the Circular Royalty™ is operating revenue — no balance sheet impact on communities.
- The 30-year combined community benefit ranges from CAD$794M (100 TPD) to CAD$8.25B (1,000 TPD) — the combination of Circular Royalty™ payments and disposal cost avoidance. Expressed per household (est. 120,000 households): approximately CAD$220/household/year at 100 TPD, CAD$1,099/household/year at 500 TPD, and CAD$2,292/household/year at 1,000 TPD, on a 30-year average basis. The 1,000 TPD configuration processes the corridor's entire current manufacturing feedstock stream and positions Saskatchewan's southern corridor as a national leader in Advanced Circular Manufacturing.
- Title transfer at feedstock receipt arrests forward PFAS and closure liability accrual. Under PSAB PS 3200, once manufacturing feedstock title transfers to Carbotura, neither community accrues new environmental obligations from diverted material. The combined $85M–$310M+ estimated corridor liability is not eliminated — but its forward growth is arrested from Day 1 of operations.
- The engagement pathway begins with a non-binding Letter of Intent. No commitment is made until execution of a signed Circular Offtake Agreement. Carbotura recommends initiating the LOI process no later than Q3 2026 to protect the Q2 2028 COD (Commercial Operations Date) timeline ahead of Moose Jaw's closure deadline.
Table of Contents
SQ1 Disposal Cost Profile
The Regina–Moose Jaw corridor carries one of the highest fully-loaded manufacturing feedstock disposal costs in Prairie Canada. Based on the corridor's volume-weighted cost structure documented in the 2025 Waste Intelligence Report, the combined weighted average sits at CAD$198/t — and accelerating. Neither community has a mechanism that converts disposal expenditure into a revenue return. Every dollar spent on legacy disposal is permanently lost.
Per-Stream Cost Breakdown — Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor
| Feedstock Stream | Est. Annual Volume | Volume Weight | Net Cost Range (CAD$/t) | Weighted Contribution | Confidence | Cost Bearer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSW Residential — Urban Landfill (Regina) | ~110,000 t/yr | 56% | $190–$215/t | $107–$137/t | Med | City of Regina Waste Utility |
| MSW Residential — Urban Landfill (Moose Jaw) | ~20,000 t/yr est. | 10% | $215–$245/t | $22–$25/t | Med | City of Moose Jaw Utility |
| MSW Commercial / ICI (Industrial, Commercial & Institutional) | ~55,000 t/yr | 28% | $175–$235/t | $49–$66/t | Low | ICI generator / private hauler |
| Blue-Cart Recycling (net City cost post-EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility)) | ~10,000 t/yr | 5% | $75–$130/t net | $4–$7/t | Low | City of Regina (collection only post-EPR) |
| Food & Yard Waste / Organics (Regina green-bin) | ~17,000 t/yr | 9% | $105–$145/t net | $9–$13/t | Low | City of Regina / Awasis contract |
| C&D / HHW / Other | ~8,000 t/yr | 4% | $60–$300/t | $2–$12/t | Low | Generator / private hauler |
| LFG (Landfill Gas)-to-Energy Revenue Credit (Regina) | ~130,000 t landfilled | — | –$7 to –$10/t credit | –$4 to –$6/t | Med | City of Regina (~$1M/yr SaskPower PPA) |
| CORRIDOR VOLUME-WEIGHTED AVERAGE (FWDC) | ~200,000 t/yr | 100% | $167–$229/t | $198/t midpoint | Low | Mixed — municipal utilities + private generators |
Source: Regina–Moose Jaw Waste Intelligence Report 2025, Section 12 — Fully Weighted Cost Analysis. Corridor volume-weighted average (FWDC) = CAD$198/t (midpoint of $167–$229/t range). Low confidence rating reflects dependence on analogous Prairie municipality benchmarks where corridor-specific data is unavailable.
Cost Escalation Signals (2022–2027)
| Cost Component | 2022 Baseline | 2024–25 Actual | 2025–27 Projected | Rate of Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regina Landfill Tipping Fee | ~$80/t est. | $95/t [2026 bylaw] | $95–$110/t | +19–38% over 4 years | Closure reserve funding; organics cost recovery; EPR transition |
| Moose Jaw Landfill Tipping Fee | ~$85/t resident | $105/t resident · $120/t non-resident | $115–$135/t projected | +24–59% over 5 years | Capacity rationing; new facility pre-funding; approaching 2029–30 closure |
| CUPE Local 21 Labour Rates | CBA 2022–2024 | CBA 2025 ratified March 2025 (55–45% margin) | Successor CBA 2026–28 — contested | Persistent upward pressure | Inflation catch-up; Class 1 driver shortage in Saskatchewan |
| Organics Processing Cost (Regina) | $0 (no programme) | ~$106/t [Awasis contract] | $95–$115/t | New cost line — $0 to $106/t in 3 years | Green-bin programme rollout; Awasis facility launch |
| EPR Contamination Penalties | $0 | Up to $600,000/yr [18% contamination rate] | $0–$200,000/yr target | New cost exposure | SK Recycles EPR; $5,000/contaminated load penalty |
Source: Regina–Moose Jaw Waste Intelligence Report 2025, Section 12D. Default corridor escalation rate: 5.9%/yr (conservative; actual trajectory indicates higher rates for Moose Jaw).
SQ2 Capacity & Infrastructure
The Regina–Moose Jaw corridor faces a bifurcated capacity reality: Regina has approximately 26 years of remaining landfill life at Fleet Street, while Moose Jaw's Sanitary Landfill will exhaust its remaining airspace by approximately August 2029–2030. The asymmetry is the defining structural feature of the sub-region. No WTE (waste-to-energy) or combustion capacity exists in the corridor. The only large processing infrastructure is the Emterra Environmental MRF (Materials Recovery Facility) at the Global Transportation Hub, operating at 50% of its 50,000 t/yr rated capacity.
Sub-Regional Capacity Comparison
| Metric | City of Regina | City of Moose Jaw | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landfill Facility | Fleet Street Landfill (City-owned) | Sanitary Landfill, 1802 Caribou St E (City-owned) | Both municipally owned — flow control via ownership |
| Remaining Landfill Life | ~26 years (extended by green-bin) | ~4 years — closing 2029–2030 | Most consequential asymmetry in the corridor |
| Annual Intake | ~135,000 t/yr est. | ~60,000 t/yr | Regina 2.25× larger intake volume |
| Tipping Fee (2025–26) | $95/t [2026 bylaw] | $105/t resident · $120/t non-resident | Moose Jaw 26% non-resident premium = capacity rationing signal |
| Regulatory Status | Active, permitted under EMPA 2010 | Operating beyond permitted height (577m → 584m) | Moose Jaw in exceedance — accelerating closure timeline |
| Replacement Site | Not required — multi-decade runway | No approved site as of Q1 2026 | Existential disposal crisis for Moose Jaw |
| WTE / Combustion | None | None | No thermal processing capacity anywhere in corridor |
| MRF / Processing | Emterra GTH MRF (50,000 t/yr rated; ~25,000 t/yr actual) | None | MRF at 50% utilization; Moose Jaw has no processing infrastructure |
Approved Processing & Infrastructure Inventory
Emterra Environmental MRF
Global Transportation Hub, west Regina. Built 2013 at CAD$18M. 45,000 sq ft. Rated 50,000 t/yr; actual throughput ~25,000 t/yr. As of July 2025, processing responsibility transferred to SK Recycles under EPR — Emterra continues as facility operator. No Moose Jaw equivalent exists.
Processing — RecyclingAwasis Organics Biochar Facility
Contract executed December 2025. Pyrolysis-based; first-of-kind at municipal scale in Saskatchewan. Processing capacity: 17,000 t/yr residential green-bin. Operational Fall 2026. First-of-kind technology risk acknowledged. No ICI organics processing contracted.
Processing — OrganicsFleet Street Landfill (Regina)
City-owned. ~26 years remaining capacity (extended by green-bin programme). Active LFG-to-electricity PPA with SaskPower (~CAD$1M/yr). Full closure/post-closure obligation under PSAB PS 3270; CAD$38.8M Solid Waste Reserve maintained.
Disposal — ~26yr runwayMoose Jaw Sanitary Landfill
Century-old unlined facility. Operating beyond permitted height. ~4 years to closure. No leachate collection system. CAD$50,659 closure reserve — critically inadequate vs. any defensible estimate. No approved replacement site. No LFG management.
CRITICAL — Closure 2029–2030SQ3 Liability Exposure
The corridor's total estimated contingent and off-balance-sheet waste-related liability ranges from CAD$85M to CAD$310M+ Low confidence. Of this, approximately CAD$38.8M is on Regina's balance sheet (Solid Waste Reserve, PSAB PS 3270) and CAD$50,659 is on Moose Jaw's. The remainder — estimated at CAD$46M to CAD$270M+ — is either off-balance-sheet, undisclosed, or entirely unrecognised. Neither city has conducted public PFAS testing or disclosed any PFAS-specific accrual.
SQ4 Market & Operator Landscape
The Regina–Moose Jaw corridor is dominated by a single family-owned private operator for commercial collection, two municipally-owned landfills for disposal, and a single MRF now operating under the provincial EPR framework. The corridor has no integrated national consolidator controlling both collection and disposal — yet. That structural gap is exactly what GFL Environmental and Waste Connections are positioned to close through acquisition of Loraas Disposal South Ltd.
Named Corridor Operators
| Operator | Role | Structure | Estimated Revenue / Scale | Key Risk / Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loraas Disposal South Ltd. | Commercial collection; curbside recycling contracts (Regina + Moose Jaw) | Family-owned, 100% Saskatchewan, no PE backing. HQ: 620 McLeod St, Regina; depots in Moose Jaw and Kennedy. | ~CAD$22.9M estimated revenue. 80%+ of region's top 100 ICI accounts. ~90% of commercial compactors in Regina area. | Primary acquisition target for GFL, Waste Connections, or WM to complete southern Saskatchewan market position. Change of control would alter pricing dynamics for all corridor communities. |
| GFL Environmental Inc. (TSX/NYSE: GFL) | Industrial / liquid waste; regional consolidator | National public company. Expanded Saskatchewan via Envirotec (2016) and Terrapure (2021, CAD$743.8M). Third-party HHW contractor for Moose Jaw (2024). | National platform; Saskatchewan industrial liquid waste dominant. No residential municipal curbside in corridor. | Active acquisition programme. Saskatchewan position would complete a Prairie corridor with Loraas South acquisition. |
| Emterra Environmental | MRF operator — Global Transportation Hub, west Regina | Private. $18M capital facility (2013). 45,000 sq ft. 50,000 t/yr capacity; ~25,000 t/yr actual throughput. | Processing contract. Post-EPR: SK Recycles bears commodity risk; Emterra is facility operator. City receives 25% of commodity revenue under pre-EPR agreement. | Throughput at 50% — revenue model under pressure. SK Recycles EPR transition shifted commodity risk to producers effective July 2025. |
| Waste Management Inc. / WM (TSX/NYSE: WM) | Commercial ICI collection | National public company. No residential curbside contracts in corridor. | Competes with Loraas South in ICI commercial segment. | Limited corridor footprint relative to national platform capacity. |
| City of Regina | Curbside collection operator; landfill owner/operator | Municipal utility. CUPE Local 21 (outside workers). Fleet Street Landfill owner. Awasis Organics contract (2025). | ~CAD$60–70M combined sub-regional market; Regina Waste Utility is dominant force. | Vertically integrated for residential stream. EPR transition added SK Recycles as processing party. Green-bin biochar technology risk (Awasis — first of kind at municipal scale in Saskatchewan). |
| City of Moose Jaw | Curbside collection operator; landfill owner/operator | Municipal utility. Sanitary Landfill owner. No organics programme. Recycling via Loraas South collection to GTH MRF. | ~35,000 population; ~CAD$10–15M waste utility est. | Landfill closes 2029–30. No replacement site. No organics infrastructure. 3.9% diversion rate. Existential disposal crisis. |
Regulatory Framework
Primary Regulator
Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment — Environmental Assessment & Stewardship Branch. Dual mandate: promote economic development and enforce environmental compliance. No independent economic regulator for waste services (unlike Ontario's utility model).
EPR Framework
SK Recycles full-EPR assumed blue-cart processing July 2025. Producers bear commodity price risk and processing costs. Regina contamination rate reached 18% — triple the 6% SK Recycles threshold — generating up to CAD$600,000/yr in penalties.
Flow Control Mechanism
City of Regina: Bylaw 2012-63 (mandatory tipping regime, ICI reporting). City of Moose Jaw: Bylaw No. 5156 (all collected material directed to Sanitary Landfill). Informal control through municipal ownership — will lapse when Moose Jaw's landfill closes.
SQ5 Goals vs. Reality Gap
The corridor has articulated ambitious sustainability targets at both the municipal and provincial level. The gap between these commitments and operational reality is not primarily a failure of intent — it is a structural failure of infrastructure investment, diversion capacity, and disposal alternative development. Saskatchewan ranks second-worst among Canadian provinces for diversion rate at 17.9%, reflecting decades of landfill-first policy and a provincial funding model that has allocated 85% of solid waste asset replacement value to disposal rather than diversion.
Policy Targets vs. Current Performance
| Policy Goal | Target | Current Performance | Gap | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regina 65% Residential Diversion (Waste Plan Regina, 2023) | 65% by 2032 (intermediate: 45% by 2027) | 24% [City of Regina 2023] / 28% incl. SARCAN & backyard composting | 41 percentage points to target | Off-Track |
| Moose Jaw Diversion (no formal target) | No Council-approved target | 3.9% [2024] | Structurally constrained — no organics programme, no ICI recycling mandate | No pathway identified |
| CCME 30% Per Capita Waste Reduction by 2030 (Canada-Wide Strategy, 2021) | 30% reduction from 2014 baseline of 845 kg/capita → reach ~592 kg/capita | Saskatchewan ~744 kg/capita disposed [2018 est.] — most recent available | Additional 22–24% reduction needed by 2030 — rate never achieved in Saskatchewan history | Off-Track — no provincial roadmap published |
| Saskatchewan 17.9% Provincial Diversion Rate | No provincial diversion target enacted | 17.9% [2022] — 2nd worst in Canada | Structural ceiling from 85% of solid waste asset value in disposal | Deteriorating trajectory |
| EPR Contamination — SK Recycles 6% Threshold | ≤6% contamination rate | 18% contamination rate [Regina, 2025–26] | 12 percentage points above threshold; up to CAD$600,000/yr penalty exposure | Penalised — remediation underway |
Sections II and III of this document were prepared by Carbotura Inc. Carbotura Inc. has a direct and material financial interest in the Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor adopting the proposed Circular Offtake Agreement described in Section III. Readers should evaluate all projections, benefit estimates, and financial comparisons in that context.
The Status Quo Assessment (Section I) draws from the independently prepared Regina–Moose Jaw Waste Intelligence Report 2025. The Economic Impact Report and Proposal financial models are Carbotura's own, based on the RevCon™ 3 conservative baseline applied to community data from that report. All projections are illustrative — not audited, not independently verified, and not a contractual commitment or professional financial, legal, or accounting advice.
Independent advice recommended. The Corridor's financial officers, legal counsel, and auditors should independently assess all projections and accounting treatment before any agreement is executed. Carbotura welcomes independent technical due diligence and third-party verification of all model assumptions on request.
EIR1 Cost Transformation
Corrects SQ1: Disposal Cost Profile. The status quo delivers CAD$198/t and rising — with no return. The proposed Carbotura partnership delivers CAD$150/t and falling — with a 120% return beginning Year 2. This section quantifies the transformation across all three proposed configurations.
Volume-weighted disposal cost escalating at 5.9%+/yr with no community return. 30-year cumulative spend at 1,000 TPD scale: ~CAD$6.1B in nominal terms. Zero royalty, zero equity participation, zero diversion credit. Every dollar leaves the corridor permanently.
Proposed TMC Fee is CAD$48/t below current FWDC from Day 1. Circular Royalty™ returns 120% annually beginning Year 2. 30-year combined community benefit: CAD$794M (100 TPD) · CAD$3.96B (500 TPD) · CAD$8.25B (1,000 TPD). Same expenditure — restructured to generate community revenue.
TMC Fee vs. Current FWDC — The Immediate Day 1 Saving
The proposed TMC Fee of CAD$150/t is calculated directly from the corridor's volume-weighted disposal cost using the Carbotura formula: MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC − $5)). At CAD$198/t FWDC, the formula yields CAD$193/t, which is capped at the ceiling of CAD$150/t. The ceiling rule means communities with the most expensive disposal regimes — like the Regina–Moose Jaw corridor — receive the largest immediate savings.
All projections are illustrative estimates based on the above assumptions applied to RevCon™ 3 baseline. Independent verification recommended before any agreement is executed.
Year-by-Year Net Community Benefit — Minimum Configuration (100 TPD)
The table below models the annual financial position for the Minimum 100 TPD configuration. The TMC Fee (outflow) is below current disposal cost from Day 1. The Circular Royalty™ begins in Year 2 and exceeds the TMC Fee paid in Year 1 — the crossover to permanent net positive occurs in Year 2 and compounds every year thereafter. See prop-4 for all three tiers over 30 years.
| Year | Throughput (t) | TMC Fee Outflow (CAD) | Circular Royalty™ Inflow (CAD) | Avoided Cost Value (CAD) | Net Annual Community Position (CAD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 27,375 | –$4,106,250 | $0 (13-month lag) | +$5,420,250 | +$1,314,000 |
| Year 2 | 36,500 | –$5,529,750 | +$4,927,500 | +$7,654,077 | +$7,051,827 |
| Year 3 | 36,500 | –$5,585,048 | +$6,699,771 | +$8,108,279 | +$9,223,002 |
| Year 5 | 36,500 | –$5,697,378 | +$6,966,076 | +$9,093,281 | +$10,361,979 |
| Year 10 | 36,500 | –$5,980,697 | +$7,317,380 | +$12,016,940 | +$13,353,623 |
| Year 20 | 36,500 | –$6,578,380 | +$8,060,780 | +$20,013,300 | +$21,495,700 |
| 30-Year Total | ~1,052,125 | –$177,148,000 est. | +$220,270,000 | +$574,189,000 | +$617,311,000 net |
Illustrative projection — 100 TPD configuration. Not a contractual commitment. TMC Fee escalates 1%/yr. Circular Royalty™ = 120% of annual TMC Fee paid; Year 2 royalty based on Year 1 tonnage (13-month lag). Avoided Cost = FWDC × (1.059)^(N−1) × annual tons. All figures in CAD.
| Configuration | CAPEX (Carbotura) | Annual Tons (full) | 30yr Circular Royalty™ | 30yr Avoided Cost | 30yr Combined Benefit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 TPD Minimum | CAD$75M | 36,500 | $220M | $574M | $794M |
| 500 TPD Tier 1 | CAD$295M | 182,500 | $1,093M | $2,862M | $3,955M (~$3.96B) |
| 1,000 TPD Tier 2 | CAD$570M | 365,000 | $2,167M | $6,085M | $8,252M (~$8.25B) |
| Per-household per year (est. 120,000 households, 30-year average) | Minimum: ~CAD$220/hh/yr · Tier 1: ~CAD$1,099/hh/yr · Tier 2: ~CAD$2,292/hh/yr | ||||
Illustrative projections. TMC Fee escalates 1%/yr from CAD$150/t base. Avoided Cost escalates 5.9%/yr from CAD$198/t FWDC base. 30-year nominal totals using staged commissioning tonnages. Not contractual commitments. See prop-4 for full 30-year schedules.
EIR2 Liability Elimination
Corrects SQ3: Liability Exposure. The corridor carries CAD$85M–$310M+ in estimated contingent and off-balance-sheet waste liabilities, the majority of which is unrecognised and unmonitored. The proposed Carbotura partnership does not eliminate legacy liabilities — but it arrests their forward growth from the first day manufacturing feedstock is diverted. Title transfer is the legal mechanism. This section maps each liability category to its ACM correction.
PFAS: $10M–$80M+ off-balance-sheet; no testing at either landfill. Closure gap: $15M–$50M+ (Moose Jaw $50,659 reserve for a century-old unlined facility). Financial assurance gap: $15M–$50M. All categories growing as legacy sites continue receiving material. Under PSAB PS 3300, disclosure is only required when liability is "likely and estimable" — neither city has tested, so neither has disclosed.
Under the proposed Circular Offtake Agreement, title to manufacturing feedstock transfers to Carbotura Inc. at the point of receipt. From that moment, neither community accrues new environmental obligation from the diverted stream. Under PSAB PS 3200 (Liabilities), a liability accrues only when a present obligation exists — and title transfer removes the present obligation for diverted material from Day 1 of operations.
Liability-to-ACM-Correction Ledger
| Liability Category | SQ Estimated Amount | Confidence | ACM Mechanism | Result Under Proposed COA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFAS Leachate Exposure | $10M–$80M+ CAD | Low | Title transfer at feedstock receipt → manufacturing feedstock never enters landfill → new PFAS-bearing material stops accumulating. Recyclotron molecular reforming is engineered to eliminate PFAS through complete molecular breakdown. | Forward accrual arrested from Day 1. Legacy PFAS at existing landfills unaffected — ACM stops the increment. |
| Closure & Post-Closure Obligations | $40M–$90M CAD | Low | Feedstock diverted to ACM facility never enters the landfill — reducing intake rate and extending remaining airspace. For Moose Jaw: slower intake consumption extends the closure timeline, reducing pressure on the 2029–30 deadline. For Regina: extends ~26-year runway further. | Legacy closure obligation does not increase from diverted material. Airspace extension is proportional to diversion TPD — 100 TPD buys ~1–2 years additional Moose Jaw runway. |
| Financial Assurance Gap | $15M–$50M CAD | Low | Carbotura holds all environmental permits for the ACM facility under a manufacturing air quality permit (NAICS 325xxx/331xxx). Carbotura is the permit holder — communities are feedstock suppliers. The FA gap on the ACM stream is Carbotura's obligation, not the community's. | FA gap from ACM stream = $0 to communities. Legacy FA gap from existing landfills is unchanged but does not grow from ACM-diverted material. |
| Legacy Site Remediation | $5M–$50M CAD | Low | Exogenesis Protocol — Carbotura's urban and landfill mining protocol. Legacy deposits (pre-regulatory dumps, abandoned sites) can serve as a feedstock source under Exogenesis → Pregenesis → Regenesis pathway, potentially generating revenue from remediation rather than cost. | Potential conversion of legacy remediation liability into a revenue-generating feedstock source. Not modelled in base case — upside only. Requires site-specific scoping in Term Sheet. |
| Pension & Labour Legacy | $15M–$40M CAD | Low | ACM facility employs 39–390 FTE in direct manufacturing jobs at CAD$110,000 average annual salary. Workforce preference: local hire first. If current legacy disposal workers transition to ACM, pension and OPEB tail risk may be managed through workforce planning. No direct pension obligation transfer — community-specific analysis required. | No direct ACM mechanism for pension liability. Indirect benefit: expanded tax base and payroll improve community fiscal capacity to address pension obligations over time. |
| PSAB Standard | Applies To | Treatment | Balance Sheet Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| PS 3390 | Circular Royalty™ revenue | Revenue from contracts — recognized when earned (annually) | Improves accumulated surplus from Year 2 |
| PS 3200 | Forward PFAS / closure liability | Title transfer removes present obligation for diverted material — no new accrual from ACM stream | Forward environmental liability growth arrested |
| PS 3150 | ACM facility asset | Carbotura owns the facility — no tangible capital asset on community books | Zero capital obligation; zero asset addition |
| PS 3410 | TMC Fee payments | Operating expenditure — replaces existing disposal budget line | No new debt; operating line only |
Community should confirm accounting treatment with its auditors prior to executing any agreement. This analysis is Carbotura's interpretation based on publicly available PSAB standards and does not constitute professional accounting advice.
EIR3 Capacity Solution
Corrects SQ2: Capacity & Infrastructure. The Moose Jaw Sanitary Landfill closes in approximately four years. No approved replacement site exists. The Regina–Moose Jaw corridor has no WTE or combustion capacity. The proposed Carbotura ACM facility is not a supplementary option — it is a complete replacement for the corridor's capacity deficit, fully operational before the closure date on all three tier configurations, requiring no landfill siting, no environmental remediation, and no public capital.
Moose Jaw Sanitary Landfill: closing 2029–2030. Operating beyond permitted height (584m vs. 577m limit). No approved replacement site. ~60,000 t/yr intake with no alternative. Zero WTE or combustion capacity in the corridor. Emergency diversion to Regina Landfill (71 km) would accelerate Fleet Street's timeline and has not been costed or contracted.
All three proposed ACM configurations reach operational status before the 2029–2030 Moose Jaw closure date. Minimum 100 TPD: fully operational Q2 2028. Tier 1 500 TPD: fully operational Q2 2029. Tier 2 1,000 TPD: first modules operational Q2 2028, full capacity Q3 2030. Manufacturing air quality permit only — no landfill siting, no post-closure obligation.
Commissioning Timeline vs. Moose Jaw Closure — All Three Tiers
Module Commissioning Schedule — Full Detail
| Quarter | Module | Cumulative Capacity | MIN 100 TPD | T1 500 TPD | T2 1,000 TPD | Moose Jaw Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | — | — | Construction begins (building shell for 1,000 TPD; all three tiers share civil infrastructure) | ~3 years to closure | ||
| Q2 2028 | 1 | 100 TPD | ✔ MIN COMPLETE | 20% capacity | 10% capacity | ~18 months to closure |
| Q3 2028 | 2 | 200 TPD | — | 40% | 20% | ~15 months to closure |
| Q4 2028 | 3 | 300 TPD | — | 60% | 30% | ~12 months to closure |
| Q1 2029 | 4 | 400 TPD | — | 80% | 40% | ~9 months to closure |
| Q2 2029 | 5 | 500 TPD | — | ✔ T1 COMPLETE | 50% | ~6 months to closure |
| Q3 2029 | 6 | 600 TPD | — | — | 60% | At closure threshold |
| Q4 2029 | 7 | 700 TPD | — | — | 70% | Closure event |
| Q1 2030 | 8 | 800 TPD | — | — | 80% | Post-closure monitoring begins |
| Q2 2030 | 9 | 900 TPD | — | — | 90% | Post-closure |
| Q3 2030 | 10 | 1,000 TPD | — | — | ✔ T2 COMPLETE | Post-closure |
Illustrative commissioning schedule based on Q2 2028 first COD and one 100 TPD module per quarter. Building shell sized for 1,000 TPD from Day 1. Expansion to higher tier requires $55M/100 TPD additional module cost only — no new civil or site works. PEM stack replacement: Year 8 at $19.2M per 400 TPD equivalent from operating cash.
Capacity Replacement Math
100 TPD Minimum
36,500 t/yr annual capacity. Replaces ~18% of corridor's total manufacturing feedstock throughput. Replaces ~61% of Moose Jaw's ~60,000 t/yr intake. Sufficient to fully close the Moose Jaw residential stream while corridor transitions.
Online: Q2 2028500 TPD Tier 1
182,500 t/yr annual capacity. Replaces ~91% of the full corridor's throughput. Fully absorbs Moose Jaw's ~60,000 t/yr and ~70% of Regina's stream. Southern Saskatchewan's most significant new manufacturing infrastructure since the potash expansion era.
Online: Q2 20291,000 TPD Tier 2
365,000 t/yr annual capacity — exceeds the entire corridor's current ~200,000 t/yr throughput. Provides regional capacity for surrounding rural municipalities and potential inter-provincial feedstock agreements. Shell built from Day 1; no new siting required for regional expansion.
Full capacity: Q3 2030EIR4 Jobs & Economic Impact
The proposed ACM facility creates direct high-wage manufacturing employment that does not currently exist in the corridor. Legacy feedstock management — landfilling and hauling — generates minimal local value from the corridor's manufacturing feedstock stream. Advanced Circular Manufacturing converts that stream into a permanent, high-wage manufacturing workforce anchored in the community.
At CAD$295M Carbotura investment (500 TPD), 195 FTE positions at CAD$110,000 average annual salary — 77% above Saskatchewan's provincial average wage of ~CAD$62,000. Zero capital required from the corridor. With a 2.5× regional economic multiplier, the Tier 1 configuration generates an estimated 488 total jobs across the regional economy — new economic activity that does not displace any existing employment.
Three-Tier Jobs & Economic Impact Comparison
| Metric | Minimum — 100 TPD | Tier 1 — 500 TPD | Tier 2 — 1,000 TPD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct FTE Manufacturing Jobs | 39 FTE | 195 FTE | 390 FTE |
| Average Annual Salary (CAD) | $110,000 | $110,000 | $110,000 |
| Annual Direct Payroll (CAD) | $4.29M | $21.45M | $42.9M |
| Premium vs. SK Provincial Average ($62K) | +77% | +77% | +77% |
| Regional Economic Multiplier (2.5×) | ~98 total jobs | ~488 total jobs | ~975 total jobs |
| Total Economic Activity Generated | ~$10.7M/yr | ~$53.6M/yr | ~$107.3M/yr |
| Carbotura CAPEX (100% financed) | CAD$75M | CAD$295M | CAD$570M |
| Per-Capita Income Lift (÷ 295,000 pop.) | ~$14.5/capita/yr | ~$72.7/capita/yr | ~$145.4/capita/yr |
| Community Capital Contribution Required | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Illustrative projections — jobs formula: [TPD] × 0.39 (rounded). Multiplier 2.5× regional economic multiplier applied to direct payroll. Total economic activity = direct payroll × 2.5×. Per-capita income lift = total economic activity ÷ 295,000 corridor population. All figures in CAD. Not a contractual commitment.
Labour Profile & Local Hire Framework
Local Hire First Policy
Carbotura's standard employment framework prioritises local hire from within the host municipality and surrounding region. All required technical training is provided by Carbotura Inc. No pre-existing ACM credentials required from the local workforce.
Manufacturing Classification
All positions classified under NAICS 325xxx / 331xxx manufacturing codes — not NAICS 562xxx legacy feedstock management. This distinction affects wage benchmarking, union classification eligibility, and provincial skills grant programme access (Saskatchewan Apprenticeship and Trades Certification Commission).
Workforce Transition Pathway
Current City of Regina and City of Moose Jaw waste utility workers may qualify for priority consideration under Carbotura's local hire framework. Manufacturing reclassification may open eligibility for Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Programme (SINP) skilled worker streams to fill any remaining gaps.
Training & Upskilling
Carbotura provides all ACM-specific technical training in-house. Regional post-secondary partnerships (University of Regina, Saskatchewan Polytechnic) are standard Carbotura practice for ongoing workforce development — positions are eligible for Saskatchewan Student Loan forgiveness programmes for graduates remaining in the province.
Supply Chain & Indirect Employment Estimate
The ACM facility generates indirect employment across feedstock logistics, facility maintenance, materials testing and QA, and distribution of RevCon™ manufactured products. At Tier 1 (500 TPD), Carbotura estimates approximately 130–165 additional indirect positions within the corridor and surrounding region — logistics operators, laboratory technicians, equipment service technicians, and professional services. These are not included in the direct FTE count.
Provincial Incentive Programmes — Upside Only
EIR5 Fiscal Impact
The proposed ACM facility creates a new, permanent manufacturing tax base within the corridor. Legacy feedstock disposal — landfilling and hauling — generates minimal local tax revenue because the primary operators are either municipal utilities (tax-exempt) or private operators whose principal corporate tax base is registered provincially or nationally. Advanced Circular Manufacturing creates assessable manufacturing property, generates payroll tax, and contributes to Saskatchewan PST revenue — all from zero community capital outlay.
The corridor spends approximately CAD$198/t on manufacturing feedstock disposal, generating no direct fiscal return. City-owned landfill revenue flows back to the municipal utility — not the general fund as new revenue. Private operators (Loraas South, GFL, WM) pay corporate taxes to provincial/national consolidated entities. Municipal workers' payroll taxes are partially offset by pension/benefit costs. Net new fiscal contribution from legacy disposal operators to the corridor's general revenue base is near zero.
Carbotura's manufacturing facility adds assessable manufacturing property, employer payroll tax, personal income tax from 195 new high-wage earners, and Saskatchewan PST on business inputs — all as genuinely new tax base. Corridor contributes zero capital. 30-year PV at 4% discount: ~CAD$188M (T1). The Circular Royalty™ and Avoided Cost savings are in addition to — and separate from — these fiscal contributions.
Annual Fiscal Contribution Estimate — All Three Tiers
| Fiscal Category | Basis | Minimum 100 TPD | Tier 1 500 TPD | Tier 2 1,000 TPD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Property Tax | ~1.5% of assessed value (65% of CAPEX) | ~$0.73M/yr | ~$2.88M/yr | ~$5.57M/yr |
| Employer Payroll Taxes (CPP + EI ~8.2%) | % of direct payroll | ~$0.35M/yr | ~$1.76M/yr | ~$3.52M/yr |
| Workers' Personal Income Tax (est. 22% effective) | Federal + provincial on wages | ~$0.94M/yr | ~$4.72M/yr | ~$9.44M/yr |
| Saskatchewan PST (6%) on Business Inputs | Operating expenditures subject to PST | ~$0.30M/yr | ~$1.50M/yr | ~$3.00M/yr |
| Total Annual Fiscal Contribution (est.) | ~CAD$2.3M/yr | ~CAD$10.9M/yr | ~CAD$21.6M/yr |
Illustrative projections. Property tax based on Saskatchewan commercial mill rate ~15 per $1,000 assessed value; assessed at ~65% of CAPEX. Employer payroll taxes: CPP employee/employer contributions + EI at combined ~8.2% of payroll. Personal income tax: effective combined federal + Saskatchewan provincial rate ~22% on $110,000 salary. PST on operational business inputs at 6%. Corporate income tax contribution not modelled (Carbotura Inc. consolidates nationally). All figures are estimates. Actual fiscal contributions subject to municipal tax policy, provincial assessment, and CRA ruling. Not a contractual commitment.
10-Year and 30-Year Fiscal Contribution Projections
| Horizon | Minimum 100 TPD | Tier 1 500 TPD | Tier 2 1,000 TPD | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (ramp) | ~$1.7M | ~$8.2M | ~$16.2M | Partial year at ramp-up tonnage; property tax full-year from completion |
| Annual (full capacity) | ~$2.3M | ~$10.9M | ~$21.6M | Escalating modestly with wage growth and reassessment |
| 10-Year Cumulative (undiscounted) | ~$22M | ~$107M | ~$212M | ~3% annual growth in wage-based components assumed |
| 30-Year Cumulative (undiscounted) | ~$75M | ~$355M | ~$700M | Nominal; does not account for reassessment cycles |
| 30-Year PV at 4% Discount Rate | ~CAD$39.8M | ~CAD$188M | ~CAD$373M | Annuity factor 17.29 applied to annual base; PV of fiscal contribution stream |
Illustrative projections. Not a contractual commitment. Fiscal contribution is separate from and in addition to the Circular Royalty™ and Avoided Cost community returns modelled in prop-4.
Per-Capita Annual Fiscal Benefit
Minimum 100 TPD
Tier 1 500 TPD
Tier 2 1,000 TPD
required — all tiers
Per capita calculated on corridor population of 295,000.
Comparison to Current Fiscal Contribution from Legacy Disposal Operators
| Operator | Fiscal Contribution Type | Estimated Annual to Corridor | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| City of Regina (landfill utility) | Internal transfer — not new tax revenue | ~$0 to general fund as new revenue | Surplus from Waste Utility retained in Solid Waste Reserve |
| City of Moose Jaw (landfill utility) | Internal transfer — utility surplus | ~$0 to general fund | Reserve balance: CAD$50,659 — effectively nil |
| Loraas Disposal South Ltd. | Corporate tax (provincial), property tax (registered HQ) | Est. <$0.5M/yr to corridor jurisdictions | Family-owned — no public disclosure; corporate tax paid to CRA federally |
| GFL Environmental Inc. | Consolidated national tax base | Minimal to corridor | Saskatchewan operations a subset of national consolidated filing |
| Total current legacy fiscal contribution | <$0.5M/yr to corridor general funds | vs. ~$2.3M–$21.6M/yr from proposed ACM facility |
EIR6 Balance Sheet Transformation
Corrects SQ3 (Liability Exposure) and SQ5 (Goals vs. Reality). The corridor's current trajectory adds to a liability ledger that is 85–95% unrecognised, while generating no offsetting revenue. The proposed Carbotura partnership reverses this trajectory under Public Sector Accounting Board (PSAB) standards: the TMC Fee is an operating expenditure replacing existing disposal budget lines; the Circular Royalty™ is operating revenue recognised annually; and forward environmental liability accrual from the diverted stream is arrested from Day 1.
CAD$85M–$310M+ in contingent liabilities, majority off-balance-sheet and growing with every tonne landfilled. PFAS: no testing, no accrual. Moose Jaw closure reserve: CAD$50,659 — critically inadequate. Disposal costs escalating 5.9%+/yr. EPR penalties: up to CAD$600K/yr. Accumulated surplus: declining as costs rise without offsetting revenue. Zero prospect of improvement under legacy structure.
Under PSAB PS 3390, Circular Royalty™ is operating revenue recognised when earned — improving accumulated surplus from Year 2. Under PS 3200, title transfer arrests forward environmental liability accrual on the diverted stream. Under PS 3150, Carbotura's facility adds no tangible capital asset to community books. Under PS 3410, TMC Fee is an operating expenditure — not new debt. Net position: improving from Year 2.
Status Quo vs. Proposed Partnership — Balance Sheet Comparison
| Balance Sheet Item | Status Quo (Current Trajectory) | With Proposed Carbotura COA | PSAB Standard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental Liabilities (forward accrual) | Growing — every tonne landfilled adds PFAS exposure, closure obligation, post-closure obligation | Forward accrual arrested on diverted stream from Day 1 — legacy balances unchanged but not growing from ACM stream | PS 3200 (Liabilities) |
| PFAS Contingent Liability | $10M–$80M+ unrecognised; neither city has tested; growing with each tonne of Liquifact-generating material landfilled | No new PFAS-bearing material enters landfill from ACM stream; Recyclotron molecular reforming engineered for complete PFAS breakdown | PS 3300 (Contingent Liabilities) |
| Closure Reserve Adequacy | Moose Jaw: CAD$50,659 reserve vs. estimated CAD$15M–$50M+ obligation. Closure in ~4 years. Deficit growing. | Diversion to ACM slows Moose Jaw intake — extends remaining airspace and reduces pace of additional accrual. Each TPD diverted = approximately 365 fewer tonnes/yr entering post-closure liability base. | PS 3270 (Solid Waste Landfill Closure) |
| Tangible Capital Assets — ACM Facility | N/A | $0 — Carbotura Inc. owns and capitalises the ACM facility. Not on community books. | PS 3150 (Tangible Capital Assets) |
| Revenue (Circular Royalty™) | $0 — no royalty or revenue return from disposal expenditure | Recognised as operating revenue under PS 3390 when earned (annually, beginning Year 2) | PS 3390 (Revenue from Contracts) |
| Operating Expenditure (TMC Fee) | CAD$198/t disposal cost — operating expenditure | CAD$150/t TMC Fee — operating expenditure. Replaces existing disposal budget line under PS 3410. | PS 3410 (Government Transfers) |
| Debt / Capital Obligation | No new disposal capital required (municipal utilities bear cost) | $0 new debt — CAD$295M–$570M Carbotura capital at zero community obligation | PS 3230 (Long-term Debt) |
| Accumulated Surplus / Net Position | Deteriorating — costs rising, liabilities unaddressed, no revenue offset | Improving from Year 2 — royalty revenue + avoided cost + arrested liabilities = net positive trajectory | PS 1200 (Government Reporting Entity) |
Annual Cash Flow — Proposed Partnership vs. Status Quo (Minimum 100 TPD)
| Year | Status Quo Disposal Cost | TMC Fee Outflow (proposed) | Circular Royalty™ Inflow | Avoided Cost Value | Net Annual Community Position | Cumulative Net Benefit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | –$5,420,250 | –$4,106,250 | $0 (13-month lag) | +$5,420,250 | +$1,314,000 | +$1,314,000 |
| Year 2 | –$5,742,265 | –$5,529,750 | +$4,927,500 | +$7,633,899 | +$7,031,649 | +$8,345,649 |
| Year 3 | –$6,081,019 | –$5,585,048 | +$6,699,771 | +$8,084,300 | +$9,199,023 | +$17,544,672 |
| Year 4 | –$6,439,799 | –$5,640,898 | +$6,766,769 | +$8,561,274 | +$9,687,145 | +$27,231,817 |
| Year 5 | –$6,821,768 | –$5,697,307 | +$6,834,437 | +$9,066,449 | +$10,203,579 | +$37,435,396 |
| Year 6 | –$7,227,293 | –$5,754,280 | +$6,902,781 | +$9,601,432 | +$10,749,933 | +$48,185,329 |
| Year 7 | –$7,657,888 | –$5,811,823 | +$6,971,809 | +$10,167,917 | +$11,327,903 | +$59,513,232 |
| Year 8 | –$8,115,133 | –$5,869,941 | +$7,041,527 | +$10,767,823 | +$11,939,409 | +$71,452,641 |
| Year 9 | –$8,599,876 | –$5,928,641 | +$7,111,942 | +$11,403,283 | +$12,586,584 | +$84,039,225 |
| Year 10 | –$9,113,168 | –$5,987,927 | +$7,183,062 | +$12,076,677 | +$13,271,812 | +$97,311,037 |
| 10-Year Total | –$71.2M (SQ cost) | –$55.9M (TMC outflow) | +$60.4M | +$92.8M | +$97.3M net | CAD$97.3M cumulative |
Illustrative projection — 100 TPD Minimum configuration. Not a contractual commitment. Status Quo disposal cost = FWDC $198/t × annual tons × (1.059)^(N–1). TMC Fee escalates 1%/yr from $150/t base. Circular Royalty™ = 1.20 × prior year TMC Fee × prior year tons (13-month lag; Year 1 royalty = $0). Avoided Cost = FWDC × (1.059)^(N–1) × annual tons (net of TMC Fee). Other tiers scale proportionally — see App-A for full 10-year P&L. All figures in CAD.
PSAB Accounting Standards — Corridor Accounting Treatment
| PSAB Standard | Applies To | Treatment Under Proposed COA | Community Balance Sheet Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| PS 3390 | Circular Royalty™ revenue | Revenue from contracts — recognised when earned (annually, beginning Year 2) | Improves accumulated surplus from Year 2 onward |
| PS 3200 | Forward PFAS and closure liability | Title transfer removes present obligation for diverted material — no new accrual from ACM stream under forward-looking liability test | Forward environmental liability growth arrested on ACM stream |
| PS 3270 | Solid waste landfill closure and post-closure obligation | Material diverted to ACM never enters the landfill — reduces cumulative mass basis for post-closure obligation calculation | Slower growth in closure reserve obligation; Moose Jaw airspace extends proportionally |
| PS 3150 | Tangible capital assets — ACM facility | Carbotura Inc. owns and capitalises all facility assets. No community TCA addition. | Zero capital on community books; no depreciation charge |
| PS 3410 | TMC Fee operating expenditure | Operating expenditure replacing existing disposal budget line — categorically equivalent to current disposal contracts | No new debt instruments; operating line substitution only |
| PS 3300 | Contingent PFAS liability | Once PFAS testing occurs and liability is "likely and estimable," disclosure required — ACM does not trigger disclosure but halts forward accumulation | Disclosure obligation unchanged; forward accumulation arrested |
Under the proposed Circular Offtake Agreement structure, the TMC Fee is an operating expenditure — categorically equivalent to current disposal contracts under PSAB PS 3410. The Circular Royalty™ is operating revenue, recognised annually under PS 3390. The corridor's accumulated surplus / accumulated deficit position is projected to improve from Year 2 onward as forward environmental liability accrual is arrested on the diverted stream under PS 3200, royalty revenue begins, and the TMC Fee replaces a higher-cost disposal expenditure.
Community should confirm accounting treatment with its auditors prior to executing any agreement. This analysis is Carbotura's interpretation of publicly available PSAB standards and does not constitute professional accounting or legal advice.
Municipal Credit Quality — The Downstream Consequence
The PSAB accounting outcomes described above are not confined to the financial statements. They flow directly into the credit quality metrics that DBRS Morningstar, S&P Global Ratings, and Moody's use to assess Canadian municipal creditworthiness — and from there, into every interest rate the Corridor pays on every debenture it issues for the next 30 years. This is not a speculative benefit. It is the arithmetic consequence of improving the four inputs that drive municipal credit assessment.
| Credit Assessment Input | Status Quo Trajectory | With Proposed Carbotura COA | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Surplus / Deficit Primary credit signal |
Deteriorating — disposal costs rising 5.9%/yr; no offsetting revenue; EPR penalties up to CAD$600K/yr adding | Improving from Year 2 — Circular Royalty™ adds recurring operating revenue; TMC Fee below current disposal cost from Day 1 | PS 3390: Circular Royalty™ recognised as operating revenue annually. PS 3410: TMC Fee is operating expenditure replacing higher-cost line. |
| Debt Burden Debt-to-revenue; debt per capita |
Moose Jaw faces CAD$40M–$90M closure liability with CAD$50,659 in reserve — potential emergency capital requirement by 2029–30 | No new debt instruments created. Carbotura finances 100% of facility capital. COA is operating expenditure — no debenture, no right-of-use asset, no lease obligation. | PS 3150: ACM facility is Carbotura's TCA. Community balance sheet carries no capital obligation from the COA. |
| Contingent Liability Exposure Unrecognised + off-balance-sheet obligations |
CAD$85M–$310M+ estimated; CAD$46M–$270M+ unrecognised and growing with every tonne landfilled. PFAS: no testing, no accrual — a latent credit event waiting for a trigger. | Forward accumulation arrested from Day 1 of COA operations. Legacy liabilities remain — but stop growing from the ACM-diverted stream. Pre-disclosure protection: see panel below. | PS 3200: Title transfer removes present obligation for diverted material. PS 3300: Disclosure required only when "likely and estimable" — COA arrests accumulation before that threshold is forced. |
| Revenue Diversification Non-property-tax revenue breadth |
Zero revenue from manufacturing feedstock management. 100% cost-centre. Property tax and provincial transfers bear full burden. | Circular Royalty™ adds a new, contractually secured, 30-year recurring revenue stream — CAD$6.6M/yr at 100 TPD rising to CAD$43.5M/yr at 1,000 TPD by Year 30. Revenue diversification improves materially. | 30-year COA creates contractually secured revenue with 1%/yr escalator — assessable by credit analysts as quasi-infrastructure revenue. |
The Borrowing Cost Chain — Savings That Compound Across Every Capital Program
Municipal credit ratings have a direct arithmetic consequence that extends far beyond the financial statements themselves. Every improvement in creditworthiness reduces the interest rate the Corridor pays on every debenture it issues — for roads, water infrastructure, transit, community facilities, and every other capital program over the life of the partnership. The savings are not from the COA directly. They are from what the COA does to the credit profile, compounding across every future borrowing.
| Scenario | Rate Improvement | Future Debt Base | Annual Interest Saving | 20-Year Cumulative Saving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative — 1-notch credit improvement | 25 bps | CAD$200M | CAD$500K/yr | CAD$10M |
| Moderate — 2-notch credit improvement | 50 bps | CAD$200M | CAD$1.0M/yr | CAD$20M |
| Full corridor — 50 bps improvement on larger capital base | 50 bps | CAD$400M | CAD$2.0M/yr | CAD$40M |
Illustrative only. Credit rating changes depend on multiple factors beyond the proposed COA. Rate improvement estimates based on typical Canadian municipal debenture spread differentials between rating categories. Cumulative savings shown as simple 20-year total. Does not constitute credit rating advice.
EIR7 Environmental Correction
Corrects SQ3 (PFAS and closure liability) and SQ5 (Environmental Goals Gap). The corridor's current diversion rates — 24% (Regina) and 3.9% (Moose Jaw) — reflect an infrastructure base that cannot achieve the stated targets without a fundamental change in how the corridor's manufacturing feedstock is processed. The proposed ACM facility is not an incremental improvement to the legacy system. It is a replacement: near-zero emissions, designed for complete PFAS molecular breakdown, no ash, no new Liquifact generation from the ACM stream, and operates without combustion.
Moose Jaw Sanitary Landfill: century-old, unlined, no Liquifact collection system. PFAS accumulating in soil and groundwater adjacent to 15 Wing CFB Moose Jaw (Federal Contaminated Sites Inventory confirmed). Regina Fleet Street: Liquifact managed, LFG captured — but PFAS untested. Both cities: zero PFAS accrual, zero testing disclosed. Diversion rate ceiling: limited by processing infrastructure, not policy.
ACM facility designed for near-zero emissions under manufacturing air quality permit. Recyclotron operates without combustion — molecular reforming in an anoxic environment; no flame, no ash, no stack particulates from combustion. PFAS engineered for complete molecular breakdown. No new Liquifact generation from ACM-processed feedstock. No ash residue. GHG reduction: 21,900–219,000 t CO₂e/yr depending on tier configuration.
Annual Feedstock Diversion & GHG Reduction — All Three Tiers
| Configuration | Annual Throughput | Diverted from Landfill (t/yr) | GHG Reduction (est. t CO₂e/yr) | Landfill Methane Eliminated (t/yr) | PFAS Exposure Eliminated (t material/yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum — 100 TPD | 36,500 t/yr | 36,500 t/yr | ~21,900 t CO₂e/yr | ~582 t CH₄/yr | 36,500 t material/yr containing PFAS no longer landfilled |
| Tier 1 — 500 TPD | 182,500 t/yr | 182,500 t/yr | ~109,500 t CO₂e/yr | ~2,910 t CH₄/yr | 182,500 t/yr — exceeds full Moose Jaw intake (~60,000 t) by 3× |
| Tier 2 — 1,000 TPD | 365,000 t/yr | 365,000 t/yr | ~219,000 t CO₂e/yr | ~5,820 t CH₄/yr | 365,000 t/yr — entire corridor capacity diverted, plus regional intake potential |
GHG reduction estimate: 0.6 t CO₂e per tonne diverted from landfill (blended MSW; includes avoided methane generation at 75% LFG capture efficiency baseline, transportation emissions, and landfill operations energy). Methane elimination calculated at 21 g CH₄ per tonne MSW landfilled × 28 GWP. These are estimates for illustrative purposes; actual GHG profile subject to third-party protocol verification. Not a contractual commitment.
PFAS — Regulatory Context & ACM Response
CEPA 1999 as Amended (Bill S-5, 2023)
Long-chain PFAS are CEPA toxic substances. Health Canada is evaluating regulatory action on PFAS in landfill Liquifact. No provincial Liquifact PFAS limits in Saskatchewan as of Q1 2026 — but federal amendments create potential retrospective liability for facilities that accepted PFAS-bearing materials prior to regulatory clarity.
Risk: Growing federal oversight15 Wing CFB Moose Jaw — Proximity Risk
Federal Contaminated Sites Inventory confirms PFAS contamination at 15 Wing CFB Moose Jaw — directly adjacent to the Sanitary Landfill operating without Liquifact collection. The confluence of a confirmed PFAS source and an unlined, unmonitored landfill creates a foreseeable groundwater pathway that has not been publicly assessed by the City.
Risk: Unmonitored proximityACM Response — Engineered for Complete Molecular Breakdown
Recyclotron molecular reforming is designed to eliminate PFAS through complete molecular breakdown — disrupting the carbon-fluorine bond that makes PFAS persistent in the environment. The ACM facility produces no new Liquifact from processed feedstock. Manufacturing feedstock that previously entered the Moose Jaw landfill instead undergoes complete molecular conversion.
Approved language: CEPA 1999 contextCurrent Landfill vs. ACM Environmental Profile
| Environmental Parameter | Current Moose Jaw Landfill | Current Regina Fleet Street | Proposed ACM Facility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Combustion / Incineration | None (open-top disposal) | None (open-top disposal) | Operates without combustion — anoxic molecular reforming |
| GHG Emissions | Uncontrolled methane (no LFG management) | LFG captured — SaskPower PPA (~$1M/yr); partial mitigation | Designed for near-zero emissions — no open methane release |
| Liquifact Generation | Active; no collection system; unlined facility | Managed; collected; treated | No new Liquifact generated from ACM-processed feedstock |
| PFAS Management | No monitoring; no collection; no accrual | No disclosed PFAS testing; LFG collected but Liquifact PFAS untested | Engineered for complete molecular breakdown of PFAS compounds |
| Ash / Residual | Landfill mass (permanent) | Landfill mass (permanent) | No ash residue from ACM process |
| Post-Closure Obligation | 25-year monitoring under EMPA 2010; CAD$50,659 reserve vs. estimated CAD$15M–$50M+ obligation | 25-year obligation; CAD$38.8M reserve maintained | Zero post-closure obligation from ACM stream — manufacturing facility, not a landfill |
| Environmental Permit Holder | City of Moose Jaw | City of Regina | Carbotura Inc. — manufacturing air quality permit only |
Corridor Environmental Goals Gap — ACM Contribution
| Policy Goal (from SQ5) | Current Gap | ACM Contribution at T1 (500 TPD) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regina 65% Diversion by 2032 | 41 percentage points from 24% | 182,500 t/yr ACM = ~100% of Regina's current disposal stream diverted to manufacturing conversion | Diversion rate arithmetic: ACM throughput ÷ total generation = structural pathway to 65%+ target, with no new landfill infrastructure |
| CCME 30% Per Capita Reduction | 22–24% additional reduction needed by 2030 | T1 (500 TPD) throughput of 182,500 t/yr exceeds full corridor generation — structural over-capacity for CCME compliance | CCME target achievable within ACM commissioned capacity before 2030 federal target date |
| Moose Jaw Diversion — No formal target | 3.9% — no pathway without infrastructure | MIN (100 TPD) alone handles ~61% of Moose Jaw's full intake — creating the diversion infrastructure that does not currently exist | Even Minimum configuration gives Moose Jaw a functional diversion pathway for the first time |
| EPR Contamination — SK Recycles 6% threshold | 18% contamination rate; up to CAD$600K/yr penalty | ACM accepts blended manufacturing feedstock — contamination rate is irrelevant for ACM throughput. Sorting requirements eliminated for ACM stream. | EPR penalty eliminated for ACM-diverted stream; sorting investment redirected |
Environmental Credit Upside — Not in Base Case
- Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS): Federal carbon backstop — manufacturing facilities with ≥50,000 t CO₂e/yr covered under OBPS. Facility eligible to earn surplus performance credits if emissions below facility intensity standard. Estimated upside: CAD$1.4M–$14.2M/yr at T1–T2 (at $95/t carbon price, 109,500–219,000 t CO₂e reduction).
- Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) Credits: Federal CFR compliance credits for displacing fossil fuel equivalents in manufactured hydrogen and advanced carbon products. Upside only — quantum and eligibility subject to federal CER ruling.
- Voluntary Carbon Credits (VCC — Gold Standard / VCS): Third-party verified landfill diversion and methane avoidance credits. At T1: ~109,500 t CO₂e/yr × market rate (est. CAD$15–30/t VCC) = CAD$1.6M–$3.3M/yr illustrative upside.
- Saskatchewan Emissions Trading (when enacted): Provincial cap-and-trade framework pending. ACM credits eligible under manufacturing category upon enactment.
P0 What Carbotura Is Proposing
Carbotura Inc. proposes to design, finance, construct, own, and operate an Advanced Circular Manufacturing facility in the Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor under a 30-year Circular Offtake Agreement. The corridor contributes its manufacturing feedstock. Carbotura contributes all capital — CAD$75M to CAD$570M depending on the tier selected. The corridor pays a TMC Fee below its current disposal cost and receives a Circular Royalty™ starting in Year 2. Three configurations are proposed. The building shell is always sized for 1,000 TPD regardless of the tier selected at signing.
All figures are illustrative projections. Carbotura Inc. makes no contractual commitment prior to execution of a signed Circular Offtake Agreement.
Proposal Summary — Six Commitments
Capital Commitment
100% Carbotura-financed. CAD$75M (MIN) · CAD$295M (T1) · CAD$570M (T2). Building shell sized for 1,000 TPD regardless of opening tier — expansion to higher tiers requires only additional modules at CAD$55M/100 TPD, with 6 months notice and no new civil infrastructure. Zero community bonds. Zero community capital.
Job Creation
39 FTE (MIN) · 195 FTE (T1) · 390 FTE (T2). Average annual salary: CAD$110,000 — 77% above Saskatchewan's provincial average wage. Local hire first policy. All training provided by Carbotura. Manufacturing classification (NAICS 325xxx/331xxx) — eligible for provincial apprenticeship and skills grant programmes.
Community Financial Return
TMC Fee of CAD$150/t — CAD$48 below current FWDC from Day 1. Circular Royalty™ begins Year 2: 120% of the TMC Fee paid in the prior year, escalating 1%/yr for 30 years. Community Crossover Point: Year 2 — permanently net positive. 30-year combined benefit: CAD$794M (MIN) · CAD$3.96B (T1) · CAD$8.25B (T2).
Fiscal Impact
New manufacturing tax base: ~CAD$2.3M/yr (MIN) · ~CAD$10.9M/yr (T1) · ~CAD$21.6M/yr (T2). Property tax, payroll tax, personal income tax, PST — all new revenue. 30-year PV at 4%: ~CAD$39.8M (MIN) · ~CAD$188M (T1) · ~CAD$373M (T2). In addition to, not instead of, the Circular Royalty™ and Avoided Cost returns.
Environmental Commitment
Designed for near-zero emissions. Recyclotron operates without combustion — no ash, no stack particulates from combustion. PFAS engineered for complete molecular breakdown. No new Liquifact generation from ACM stream. GHG reduction: 21,900–219,000 t CO₂e/yr. Manufacturing air quality permit — not a waste facility permit. Carbotura holds all permits.
Engagement Pathway
The corridor is at Stage 1. Advancing to Stage 2 (Letter of Intent) initiates the formal due diligence process, site assessment, and Term Sheet negotiations — all non-binding through Stage 3.
Partnership Proposal YOU ARE HERE
This document. Review, discuss, and present to Council and Finance.
Letter of Intent
Non-binding LOI to Carbotura. Initiates formal engagement and due diligence.
Term Sheet
Both parties execute. Tier selection confirmed. TMC Fee and Royalty schedule formalised.
COA Drafting & Execution
30-year Circular Offtake Agreement signed.
Permitting
NAICS 325xxx/331xxx manufacturing air quality permit — Carbotura holds all permits.
Closing & Construction
Financial close. Ground break ~Q4 2026. 1,000 TPD shell from Day 1.
COD — Module 1
Q2 2028: first manufacturing feedstock delivery. Operations begin at 100 TPD.
P1 About ACM & Technology
Advanced Circular Manufacturing is a new industrial category created by Carbotura Inc. It is not recycling, not incineration, and not waste-to-energy. ACM is a proprietary integration of 35 commercially established component technologies, AI-optimised for near-100% material conversion of mixed manufacturing feedstock into manufactured products. The system operates without combustion, produces no ash, generates no new Liquifact from processed feedstock, and is designed for near-zero emissions.
The Four Carbotura Protocols
Pregenesis — Feedstock Preparation
First core protocol. Direct feed to Regenesis is the standard mode. Incoming manufacturing feedstock is sorted, prepared, and sized for Regenesis processing. SMU buffer storage is available but not required in standard operation. Accepted feedstock type: all categories of mixed manufacturing feedstock.
Protocol 1 of 4Regenesis — Feedstock Disintegration
The Recyclotron reactor. Electromagnetic molecular reforming in an anoxic (oxygen-free) environment — operates without combustion. No flame, no burn, no ash. Feedstock is molecularly disintegrated into OmniCrude™, the intermediate state that flows to Regenesis MAX for refining.
Protocol 2 of 4Regenesis MAX — Materials Refining
OmniCrude™ is refined into finished manufactured products. AI-optimised separation and refining sequence produces the RevCon™ Revenue Stack — nine product categories from the same input stream. This is where the manufactured value is created and where the financial performance of the facility is generated.
Protocol 3 of 4Exogenesis — Urban & Landfill Mining (Optional)
Precursor protocol to Pregenesis. Deployed when the feedstock source is a legacy deposit — landfill, coal ash pond, mining tailings, contaminated soil. The Saskatchewan Impacted Sites Registry carries 2,712 entries. The Moose Jaw Sanitary Landfill's century of accumulated material represents a potential Exogenesis feedstock source. Requires site-specific scoping in Term Sheet.
Protocol 4 of 4 (Optional)TMC (Total Material Conversion) is the outcome of the Circular Advantage program and all four Protocols collectively — not attributable to any single technology. Standard sequence: Pregenesis → Regenesis → Regenesis MAX → RevCon™ = TMC.
TMC Fee Calculation — Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor
TMC Fee escalates 1%/yr from CAD$150/t opening rate. Floor rule: if FWDC ≤ $105, TMC Fee = $100. Ceiling rule: if FWDC ≥ $155, TMC Fee = $150. At FWDC $198/t, ceiling applies. Source: Regina–Moose Jaw Waste Intelligence Report 2025, Section 12 (s12 volume-weighted average).
RevCon™ Product Categories — Revenue Stack
| RevCon™ Product | Yield % of Input | Business Baseline Price (CAD/t) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renewable Graphite (EcoGraph™) | 13% | $3,750 | ~65% of total product revenue at 400 TPD — highest-value manufactured output |
| Renewable Advanced Carbon Products | 2% | $5,000 | Highest unit value; specialty manufacturing grade |
| Renewable Refined Water (DI) | 24% | $250 | Industrial deionised water; largest volume by yield |
| Renewable Industrial Gases | 16% | $250 | Industrial grade; sold to regional gas distribution networks |
| Renewable Aromatics | 8% | $450 | Chemical feedstock for regional industrial purchasers |
| Renewable Metals | 6% | $375 | Recovered and refined ferrous and non-ferrous metals |
| Renewable Glass Aggregates | 8% | $75 | Construction-grade aggregate for regional infrastructure |
| Renewable Aggregates | 13% | $13 | Bulk aggregate; regional construction and roadbase applications |
| Renewable Hydrogen | 10% | Captive — zero revenue | Consumed by Island Mode captive PEM fuel cell — eliminates all utility costs; no grid dependency |
| Total Product Yield | 100% | Business Baseline pricing per RevCon™ 3 (conservative). Product revenue at 400 TPD: ~CAD$119.1M/yr. Graphite: ~$77.0M. |
RevCon™ 3 conservative baseline pricing. Business Baseline = 50% of current market price. Illustrated in CAD. Product revenue is separate from TMC Fee revenue. Island Mode hydrogen captive use eliminates all utility costs — no revenue but eliminates operating expense line. All figures illustrative.
ACM vs. Legacy Systems — Material Recovery Comparison
| Metric | Legacy MRF (Emterra GTH) | Landfill (Current Status Quo) | ACM Facility (Proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Material Recovery Rate | ~60–75% of accepted material (single stream only) | ~0% (permanent disposal) | Designed for near-100% material conversion |
| Accepted Feedstock | Single-stream recyclables only; high contamination sensitivity | All categories; no recovery value | All categories of mixed manufacturing feedstock — no pre-sorting required |
| Contamination Penalty | Up to CAD$5,000/contaminated load under SK Recycles EPR (18% rate = up to $600K/yr) | None (all accepted) | None — ACM designed for blended mixed feedstock |
| Community Revenue Return | 25% of commodity revenue (pre-EPR) — SK Recycles assumed commodity risk July 2025 | $0 | Circular Royalty™ = 120% of TMC Fee from Year 2 |
| Combustion / Incineration | None | None (open disposal) | Operates without combustion — molecular reforming |
| PFAS Management | None — contaminated materials pass through to downstream | Accumulates in Liquifact (unmanaged at Moose Jaw) | Engineered for complete molecular breakdown of PFAS |
| Post-Closure Obligation | None | 25-year obligation under EMPA 2010; ~$38.85M combined reserves (inadequate for Moose Jaw) | Zero — manufacturing facility, not a landfill |
| Permit Type | MRF permit (solid waste processing facility) | Landfill disposal permit under EMPA 2010 | Manufacturing air quality permit (NAICS 325xxx/331xxx) |
| Community Capital Required | CAD$18M (existing Emterra facility — city-contracted) | Municipal capital for fleet, operations | $0 — 100% Carbotura-financed |
Proposed COA — Key Terms
Title Transfer
Title to manufacturing feedstock transfers to Carbotura Inc. at point of receipt at the ACM facility. The community ceases to have environmental or legal obligation with respect to that material from that moment.
Term — 30 Years
Circular Offtake Agreement term: 30 years from first commercial delivery. Renewal terms available on mutual agreement. COA is structured to begin at existing contract expiry or as supplement.
TMC Fee
CAD$150/t opening rate. Escalates 1%/yr. Community pays Carbotura the TMC Fee per tonne of manufacturing feedstock delivered and received. No volume guarantee required at Stage 1.
Circular Royalty™
120% of the TMC Fee paid in the prior year, paid annually beginning Year 2. Escalates in proportion to TMC Fee escalation (1%/yr) plus real volume growth. 13-month lag; Year 1 royalty = $0.
SPV Structure
Carbotura constructs and operates the facility through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) established for the corridor. Community is feedstock supplier and Circular Royalty™ recipient — not equity holder.
Expansion Rights
Community has right of first offer on any tier expansion above the signed configuration. Expansion: CAD$55M/100 TPD additional module, 6 months notice, no new civil works. Building shell sized for 1,000 TPD from Day 1.
P2 Three-Tier Build Plan
All three configurations share the same building shell — 1,000 TPD capacity from Day 1. The shell is a fixed capital cost. The tier selected at signing determines how many 100 TPD modules are installed at opening. Expanding to a higher tier later requires only additional module installation at CAD$55M/100 TPD — no new siting, no new civil works, no environmental re-permitting. Construction begins approximately Q4 2026 for all three tiers. Module 1 is online Q2 2028 for all three tiers.
Minimum Configuration — 100 TPD
CAPEX: CAD$75M — 100% Carbotura-financed
Building shell: 1,000 TPD from Day 1 (shared across all tiers)
Modules installed: 1 × 100 TPD at opening
Direct jobs: 39 FTE at CAD$110,000 avg
Annual throughput (full): 36,500 t/yr
Expansion path: Add T1 (400 TPD additional) = +CAD$220M, 6-month notice. Add T2 (900 TPD additional) = +CAD$495M, 6-month notice.
PEM stack replacement: Year 8 (Q2 2036 est.) — $4.8M from Carbotura operating cash (0.25 × $19.2M per 400 TPD equiv.)
| Quarter | Event | Capacity |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | Construction begins | — |
| Q2 2028 | Module 1 COD ✔ | 100 TPD — COMPLETE |
Tier 1 Configuration — 500 TPD
CAPEX: CAD$295M — 100% Carbotura-financed
Building shell: 1,000 TPD from Day 1
Modules installed: 5 × 100 TPD (staged Q2 2028 – Q2 2029)
Direct jobs: 195 FTE at CAD$110,000 avg
Annual throughput (full): 182,500 t/yr
Expansion path: Add T2 (500 TPD additional) = +CAD$275M, 6-month notice
PEM stack replacement: Year 8 (Q2 2036 est.) — CAD$24M from Carbotura operating cash (at 400 TPD equiv. baseline)
| Quarter | Module | Capacity |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | Construction | — |
| Q2 2028 | Module 1 | 100 TPD |
| Q3 2028 | Module 2 | 200 TPD |
| Q4 2028 | Module 3 | 300 TPD |
| Q1 2029 | Module 4 | 400 TPD |
| Q2 2029 | Module 5 | 500 TPD ✔ COMPLETE |
Tier 2 Configuration — 1,000 TPD
CAPEX: CAD$570M — 100% Carbotura-financed
Building shell: 1,000 TPD from Day 1 (matched to final configuration)
Modules installed: 10 × 100 TPD (staged Q2 2028 – Q3 2030)
Direct jobs: 390 FTE at CAD$110,000 avg
Annual throughput (full): 365,000 t/yr — exceeds entire corridor generation; positioned for regional feedstock agreements
Expansion path: Full build — no further expansion required
PEM stack replacement: Year 8 (Q2 2036 est.) — CAD$48M from Carbotura operating cash (at 2 × $19.2M for 400 TPD-equivalent blocks)
| Quarter | Module | Capacity |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | Construction | — |
| Q2 2028 | Module 1 | 100 TPD |
| Q3–Q4 2028 | Modules 2–3 | 200–300 TPD |
| Q1–Q2 2029 | Modules 4–5 | 400–500 TPD |
| Q3–Q4 2029 | Modules 6–7 | 600–700 TPD |
| Q1–Q2 2030 | Modules 8–9 | 800–900 TPD |
| Q3 2030 | Module 10 | 1,000 TPD ✔ COMPLETE |
P3 Financial Comparison — All Three Tiers
Illustrative projection — all configurations. Based on Carbotura RevCon™ 3 conservative baseline applied to Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor feedstock and cost data. Not a contractual commitment.
Side-by-Side Configuration Summary
| Metric | 100 TPD Minimum Configuration |
500 TPD Tier 1 Configuration |
1,000 TPD Tier 2 Configuration |
|---|---|---|---|
| TPD Capacity | 100 TPD | 500 TPD | 1,000 TPD |
| Annual Manufacturing Feedstock | 36,500 t/yr | 182,500 t/yr | 365,000 t/yr |
| Proposed CAPEX (100% Carbotura) | CAD$75M | CAD$295M | CAD$570M |
| Direct Manufacturing Jobs (FTE) | 39 | 195 | 390 |
| Annual Payroll Injection | CAD$4.3M/yr | CAD$21.5M/yr | CAD$42.9M/yr |
| TMC Fee ($/tonne) Same across all tiers — based on FWDC, not facility size | CAD$150/t | CAD$150/t | CAD$150/t |
| Year 1 Revenue (ramp) | CAD$35.3M | CAD$88.1M | CAD$176.2M |
| Year 2+ Revenue (full capacity) | CAD$35.9M | CAD$177.1M | CAD$354.3M |
| EBITDA Margin (Year 2+) | ~55% | ~55% | ~55% |
| Year 1 Net Income | CAD$5.2M | CAD$12.8M | CAD$25.6M |
| 30-Year Circular Royalty™ | CAD$220M | CAD$1,093M | CAD$2,167M |
| 30-Year Avoided Cost | CAD$574M | CAD$2,862M | CAD$6,085M |
| Combined 30-Year Community Benefit | CAD$794M | CAD$3,955M | CAD$8,252M |
| Community Crossover Point | Year 2 | Year 2 | Year 2 |
The 100 TPD Minimum and the 500 TPD Tier 1 share the same building shell — the same foundation, siting footprint, civil works, and manufacturing permit. That infrastructure is constructed once for 1,000 TPD regardless of which tier is selected at signing. What changes between tiers is only the number of 100 TPD processing modules installed. The result is a non-linear community benefit curve: Tier 1 at 500 TPD delivers CAD$3,955M in combined 30-year community benefit — nearly five times the Minimum's CAD$794M — because five times the feedstock volume flows through the same fixed-cost shell. Each additional module costs CAD$55M and takes six months to add, with no new permitting and no new capital from the Corridor.
10-Year Illustrative P&L — 100 TPD Minimum Configuration
| Metric (CAD$M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8† | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee Revenue | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Product Revenue | 29.8 | 29.8 | 30.1 | 30.4 | 30.7 | 31.0 | 31.3 | 31.6 | 31.9 | 32.2 |
| Total Revenue | 35.3 | 35.3 | 35.7 | 36.0 | 36.4 | 36.8 | 37.1 | 37.5 | 37.8 | 38.2 |
| EBITDA | 18.4 | 19.4 | 19.6 | 19.8 | 20.0 | 20.2 | 20.4 | 20.6 | 20.8 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA Margin | 52.1% | 55.0% | 54.9% | 55.0% | 54.9% | 54.9% | 54.9% | 54.9% | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| Net Income | 5.2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 9.9 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9.5 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Community Circular Royalty™ | — | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| Community Avoided Cost | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 12.1 |
†Year 8: PEM stack replacement CAD$4.8M from operating cash. Community Royalty shows 13-month lag — Year 2 royalty calculated on Year 1 feedstock volume. Illustrative projection — 100 TPD configuration. Not a contractual commitment.
10-Year Illustrative P&L — 500 TPD Tier 1 Configuration
| Metric (CAD$M) | Y1† | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8‡ | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee Revenue | 13.7 | 27.6 | 27.9 | 28.2 | 28.5 | 28.8 | 29.1 | 29.4 | 29.7 | 30.0 |
| Product Revenue | 74.4 | 148.9 | 150.4 | 151.9 | 153.4 | 154.9 | 156.4 | 158.0 | 159.6 | 161.2 |
| Total Revenue | 88.1 | 176.5 | 178.3 | 180.1 | 181.9 | 183.7 | 185.5 | 187.4 | 189.3 | 191.2 |
| EBITDA | 45.8 | 97.1 | 98.1 | 99.1 | 100.0 | 101.0 | 102.0 | 103.1 | 104.1 | 105.2 |
| EBITDA Margin | 52.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| Net Income | 12.8 | 41.8 | 42.3 | 43.0 | 43.8 | 44.6 | 45.4 | 40.9 | 47.0 | 47.9 |
| Free Cash Flow | 23.5 | 57.8 | 59.2 | 60.1 | 61.3 | 62.5 | 63.7 | 44.5 | 66.3 | 67.7 |
| Community Circular Royalty™ | — | 16.4 | 33.2 | 33.5 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.5 | 34.9 | 35.2 | 35.6 |
| Community Avoided Cost | 36.2 | 38.3 | 40.6 | 43.0 | 45.5 | 48.2 | 51.0 | 54.1 | 57.3 | 60.6 |
†Year 1: 500 TPD ramp — ~250 TPD average (5 modules commissioned Q2 2028 through Q2 2029). ‡Year 8: PEM stack replacement CAD$24.0M from operating cash. Y2 royalty calculated on Y1 ramp-period feedstock volume. Illustrative projection — 500 TPD configuration. Not a contractual commitment.
10-Year Illustrative P&L — 1,000 TPD Tier 2 Configuration
| Metric (CAD$M) | Y1† | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8‡ | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee Revenue | 27.4 | 55.1 | 55.7 | 56.2 | 56.8 | 57.4 | 58.0 | 58.6 | 59.2 | 59.8 |
| Product Revenue | 148.9 | 297.8 | 300.8 | 303.8 | 306.8 | 309.9 | 313.0 | 316.1 | 319.3 | 322.5 |
| Total Revenue | 176.3 | 352.9 | 356.5 | 360.0 | 363.6 | 367.3 | 371.0 | 374.7 | 378.5 | 382.3 |
| EBITDA | 91.7 | 194.1 | 196.1 | 198.0 | 200.0 | 202.0 | 204.1 | 206.1 | 208.2 | 210.3 |
| EBITDA Margin | 52.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| Net Income | 25.6 | 83.6 | 84.6 | 86.0 | 87.5 | 89.2 | 90.8 | 81.8 | 94.1 | 95.8 |
| Free Cash Flow | 47.0 | 115.6 | 118.5 | 120.2 | 122.6 | 125.0 | 127.4 | 89.0 | 132.5 | 135.3 |
| Community Circular Royalty™ | — | 32.9 | 66.4 | 67.1 | 67.7 | 68.4 | 69.1 | 69.8 | 70.5 | 71.2 |
| Community Avoided Cost | 72.3 | 76.5 | 81.1 | 85.9 | 91.0 | 96.3 | 102.0 | 108.0 | 114.4 | 121.2 |
†Year 1: 1,000 TPD ramp — ~500 TPD average (10 modules commissioned Q2 2028 through Q3 2030). ‡Year 8: PEM stack replacement CAD$48.0M from operating cash. Illustrative projection — 1,000 TPD configuration. Not a contractual commitment.
P4 Community Returns — 30-Year Projection
30-Year Circular Royalty™ Schedule (All Tiers — Selected Years)
| Year | TMC Fee/tonne | 100 TPD Royalty | 500 TPD Royalty | 1,000 TPD Royalty |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $150.00 | — | — | — |
| 2 (Crossover) | $151.50 | $6.6M | $16.4M | $32.9M |
| 5 | $156.09 | $6.8M | $33.8M | $67.7M |
| 10 | $164.05 | $7.1M | $35.6M | $71.2M |
| 15 | $172.44 | $7.5M | $37.5M | $74.9M |
| 20 | $181.29 | $7.9M | $39.4M | $78.7M |
| 25 | $190.60 | $8.3M | $41.4M | $82.8M |
| 30 | $200.40 | $8.7M | $43.5M | $87.1M |
| 30-Year Total Royalty | CAD$220M | CAD$1,093M | CAD$2,167M |
30-Year Avoided Cost Schedule (All Tiers — Selected Years)
Avoided cost is the difference between what the Corridor would pay at the legacy FWDC trajectory (CAD$198/t escalating at 5.9%/yr) versus the TMC Fee paid to Carbotura (CAD$150/t escalating at 1%/yr). The avoided cost is the gross legacy spend avoided — it compounds aggressively because the legacy disposal market inflates far faster than the TMC Fee.
| Year | Legacy $/t (5.9%/yr) | 100 TPD Avoided | 500 TPD Avoided | 1,000 TPD Avoided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $198 | $7.2M | $36.2M | $72.3M |
| 5 | $249 | $9.1M | $45.5M | $91.0M |
| 10 | $331 | $12.1M | $60.6M | $121.1M |
| 15 | $440 | $16.1M | $80.3M | $160.6M |
| 20 | $586 | $21.4M | $106.9M | $213.9M |
| 25 | $779 | $28.4M | $142.2M | $284.3M |
| 30 | $1,036 | $37.8M | $189.1M | $378.2M |
| 30-Year Avoided Total | CAD$574M | CAD$2,862M | CAD$6,085M |
Net Annual Community Cash Position — Years 1–10 (500 TPD / Tier 1)
| Year | TMC Fee Paid (outflow) | Circular Royalty™ (inflow) | Avoided Cost (inflow) | Net Annual Benefit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | (CAD$27.4M) | — | $36.2M | +$8.8M |
| 2 ✔ Crossover | (CAD$27.6M) | $16.4M | $38.3M | +$27.1M |
| 3 | (CAD$27.9M) | $33.2M | $40.6M | +$45.9M |
| 4 | (CAD$28.2M) | $33.5M | $43.0M | +$48.3M |
| 5 | (CAD$28.5M) | $33.8M | $45.5M | +$50.8M |
| 8 | (CAD$29.4M) | $34.9M | $54.1M | +$59.6M |
| 10 | (CAD$30.0M) | $35.6M | $60.6M | +$66.2M |
All figures illustrative projection — 500 TPD Tier 1 configuration. Other tiers scale proportionally. Not a contractual commitment.
Think of the Circular Royalty™ as a conversion royalty — similar in concept to a resource royalty. When the Corridor supplies manufacturing feedstock and pays the TMC Fee, Carbotura converts that feedstock into nine manufactured product categories and sells them. In return, Carbotura pays back 120% of every dollar the Corridor paid in TMC Fees — starting in Year 2. The 13-month lag allows for the first full production cycle before royalties begin. From Year 2 onward, for every dollar the Corridor pays in TMC Fees, it receives CAD$1.20 back. That net return then compounds as both the royalty escalator (1%/yr) and the avoided disposal cost escalation (5.9%/yr) work in the Corridor's favour simultaneously.
P5 Next Steps
Step 1 — Execute a Letter of Intent (LOI)
The Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor submits a Letter of Intent to Carbotura Inc. confirming interest in advancing the proposed partnership. The LOI is non-binding and initiates the formal due diligence and Term Sheet process.
Step 2 — Schedule a Site Assessment Meeting
Carbotura's technical and development team conducts an on-site assessment of the Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor's feedstock generation, logistics, and proposed facility location. This informs the final Term Sheet parameters including which tier configuration is most appropriate given the Moose Jaw landfill closure timeline of 2029–2030.
Step 3 — Request and Negotiate a Term Sheet
Carbotura issues a formal Term Sheet outlining the proposed configuration tier, TMC Fee, Circular Royalty™ schedule, CAPEX commitment, and commissioning timeline. Execution of the Term Sheet advances the parties to COA drafting.
Proposed Circular Offtake Agreement — Key Terms
| Term | Provision |
|---|---|
| Agreement Term | 30 years from first Module COD |
| Title Transfer | Title to manufacturing feedstock transfers to Carbotura Inc. at feedstock receiving bay. Community has no environmental or post-conversion liability from that point forward. |
| TMC Fee | CAD$150/t at COD; escalates 1%/year. Operating expenditure — not a lease or debt instrument under PSAB. |
| Circular Royalty™ | 120% of TMC Fee paid, per tonne, per year. 13-month lag from first COD. Escalates 1%/year with TMC Fee. Paid quarterly. |
| CAPEX | 100% Carbotura-financed. Zero capital from the Corridor. No community bond issuance required. |
| Building Shell | Sized for 1,000 TPD from Day 1. Future tier expansion = module addition only. CAD$55M per 100 TPD, 6-month notice, no new civil works. |
| SPV Structure | Carbotura SPV holds facility title, manufacturing permit (NAICS 325xxx/331xxx), and all environmental permits. Community is a feedstock supplier — not the permit holder. |
| Permitting | Manufacturing air quality permit — Carbotura's responsibility. NAICS 325xxx/331xxx (manufacturing), not NAICS 562xxx. No solid waste facility permit. |
| Force Majeure / Performance | Standard industrial FM provisions. COA defines throughput milestones and performance standards. Community financial exposure limited to TMC Fee. |
Engagement Pathway
Partnership Proposal YOU ARE HERE
Combined Economic Impact Report and Proposal delivered to the Regina–Moose Jaw Corridor. This document.
Letter of Intent
Corridor executes non-binding LOI. Initiates due diligence and Term Sheet negotiation.
Term Sheet
Both parties execute Term Sheet — includes tier selection, TMC Fee confirmation, commissioning schedule.
COA Drafting & Execution
Circular Offtake Agreement drafted, reviewed, and executed by both parties.
Permitting
Carbotura applies for and secures NAICS 325xxx/331xxx manufacturing air quality permit. All permitting is Carbotura's responsibility.
Closing & Construction
Financial close. Ground break approximately 18 months before target COD of Q2 2028 (ground break ~Q4 2026).
COD — Module 1
First feedstock delivery. ACM operations begin Q2 2028. Circular Royalty™ clock starts.
Navigating the Transition
The following materials are provided to support council deliberations, public engagement, and responses to incumbent operator communications. All data sourced from the Regina–Moose Jaw Waste Intelligence Report 2025 and Carbotura RevCon™ 3 baseline.
Common Questions & Responses
"Is this incineration? We've tried to stop incinerators before."
The Recyclotron operates without combustion. It uses electromagnetic molecular reforming in an anoxic (oxygen-free) environment — no flame, no burning, no ash. The manufacturing air quality permit it requires is categorically different from a solid waste incinerator permit. It has never been issued a solid waste permit, and never will be.
"We have existing contracts with Loraas and the Regina Landfill."
The proposed Circular Offtake Agreement is structured to begin at contract expiry or as a supplementary stream — no breach of existing agreements is required. The transition is mapped explicitly in the Term Sheet. Given that Moose Jaw's sanitary landfill closes in 2029–2030, executing an LOI now is what ensures continuity of feedstock management well before that deadline.
"Is this technology proven? We've never heard of Advanced Circular Manufacturing."
ACM integrates 35 commercially established component technologies — none of which are experimental. The engineering innovation is the AI-optimized integration of these proven systems into a single manufacturing workflow. This is an industrial-scale manufacturing system, not a laboratory prototype. Carbotura can provide references for each technology category on request.
"What are our environmental and regulatory risks?"
Title transfers to Carbotura at the feedstock receiving bay. From that moment, the manufacturing feedstock is no longer solid waste under CEPA or Saskatchewan's Municipal Refuse Management Regulations — it is manufacturing input. All permitting, environmental compliance, and post-conversion obligations belong to Carbotura's SPV. The Corridor's exposure is limited to the TMC Fee — which it is already paying in equivalent form to legacy operators.
"What if the financial projections don't materialise?"
All projections in this document are illustrative and based on Carbotura's conservative RevCon™ 3 baseline. The COA defines throughput milestones and performance standards. The Corridor's financial exposure is the TMC Fee — an amount it is already spending on disposal. The Circular Royalty™ is upside revenue, not a budget dependency. The community is not exposed to Carbotura's product market performance.
"Why pay a TMC Fee when we already pay disposal fees?"
You already do — this one pays you back. At CAD$150/t, the TMC Fee is CAD$48/t below the current weighted FWDC of CAD$198/t. Beginning in Year 2, Carbotura returns CAD$1.20 for every CAD$1.00 paid in TMC Fees as a Circular Royalty™. Over 30 years, the Tier 1 configuration projects CAD$3,955M in combined community benefit. This is the same expenditure — restructured to generate a return for the Corridor instead of flowing to disposal operators.
"What is the Corridor's total financial exposure?"
The TMC Fee only — an operating expenditure categorically equivalent to current disposal contracts under PSAB PS 3410. Zero capital from the Corridor. No bonds, no lease instruments, no environmental bonds, no financial assurance obligations. Under the proposed COA structure, the TMC Fee replaces the disposal budget line and does not add to the community's debt position.
Understanding Incumbent Responses
| Tactic | Presentation | Reality | Rebuttal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology challenge | Requests for technology references, "unproven at scale" language | 35 component technologies are individually proven. The integration model is the innovation — not novel chemistry. | Request performance guarantees in writing. Ask the incumbent to provide equivalent 30-year environmental guarantees for their own infrastructure. |
| Rate concession timing | Contract rate reductions offered at the point of LOI discussion | Confirms the existing rate was uncompetitive. Discounts offered only under competitive pressure rarely survive the next renewal cycle. | Require the 30-year model in writing. Require post-closure liability assignment and PFAS indemnification in any counter-proposal. |
| Regulatory uncertainty | Claims that ACM permitting is uncertain or novel | NAICS 325xxx/331xxx manufacturing permit pathway is established. No solid waste permit is ever applied for or held by Carbotura. | Request a legal opinion in writing from the incumbent's counsel. Compare to the regulatory uncertainty inherent in PFAS legislation now advancing under CEPA. |
| Job displacement claims | References to existing collection workforce employment | Feedstock collection routes are unchanged — Feedstock Haulers deliver to the ACM facility instead of the landfill. Net job creation: 195 FTE at Tier 1 vs. minimal local manufacturing employment under current contracts. | Request actual local employment data from each incumbent's contract. Compare to 195 direct manufacturing jobs at CAD$110K average salary. |
| Timeline risk | Construction delay scenarios raised to imply unreliability | Modular commissioning — each 100 TPD module is independent. Variable is module addition sequence, not civil construction, which is completed once for 1,000 TPD. | Check the incumbent's own infrastructure delivery history. The Moose Jaw landfill closure timeline of 2029–2030 is not subject to negotiation. |
| Environmental concern orchestration | Community group engagement, public letters citing "incineration" concerns | Concerns are legitimate and deserve transparent response. The Recyclotron operates without combustion — no flame, no ash. Manufacturing air quality permit, not a solid waste permit. | Use eir-7 environmental data. Offer independent third-party technical verification as a Term Sheet provision. Request the same transparency from incumbents on PFAS leachate monitoring data. |
Legacy Cost Trajectory — The Compounding Case for Action
The Corridor currently pays a volume-weighted average of CAD$198/t across all active feedstock management streams, with a documented escalation trajectory of 5.9%/year. At 182,500 t/year (500 TPD equivalent), that represents CAD$36.1M in annual feedstock management spend today — before escalation. The table below projects that cost trajectory against the proposed TMC Fee over 30 years.
| Year | Legacy $/t | Annual Legacy Spend (500 TPD) | ACM TMC Fee/t | Annual TMC Fee (500 TPD) | Net Annual Saving vs. Legacy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $198 | CAD$36.1M | $150 | CAD$27.4M | +$8.7M |
| 5 | $249 | CAD$45.4M | $156 | CAD$28.5M | +$16.9M |
| 10 | $331 | CAD$60.4M | $164 | CAD$29.9M | +$30.5M |
| 20 | $586 | CAD$106.9M | $181 | CAD$33.0M | +$73.9M |
| 30 | $1,036 | CAD$189.1M | $200 | CAD$36.5M | +$152.6M |
Community Talking Points
Appendix A — 10-Year Illustrative P&L — All Three Configurations
All figures CAD$M. Illustrative projections based on Carbotura RevCon™ 3 conservative baseline. Not a contractual commitment. Community Circular Royalty™ and Avoided Cost shown for reference — these are community financial outcomes, not Carbotura P&L items.
100 TPD Minimum Configuration — Full 10-Year P&L
| CAD$M | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8† | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee Revenue | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Product Revenue | 29.8 | 29.8 | 30.1 | 30.4 | 30.7 | 31.0 | 31.3 | 31.6 | 31.9 | 32.2 |
| Total Revenue | 35.3 | 35.3 | 35.7 | 36.0 | 36.4 | 36.8 | 37.1 | 37.5 | 37.8 | 38.2 |
| Operating Costs | (16.9) | (15.9) | (16.1) | (16.2) | (16.4) | (16.6) | (16.7) | (16.9) | (17.0) | (17.2) |
| EBITDA | 18.4 | 19.4 | 19.6 | 19.8 | 20.0 | 20.2 | 20.4 | 20.6 | 20.8 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA Margin | 52.1% | 55.0% | 54.9% | 55.0% | 54.9% | 54.9% | 54.9% | 54.9% | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| D&A | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| Financing Costs | (5.5) | (4.4) | (3.8) | (3.5) | (3.3) | (3.2) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (2.8) | (2.7) |
| Net Income | 5.2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 9.9 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9.5 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Community Circular Royalty™ | — | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| Community Avoided Cost | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 12.1 |
†Year 8: PEM stack replacement CAD$4.8M charged to operating cash. Illustrative projection — 100 TPD. Not a contractual commitment.
500 TPD Tier 1 Configuration — Full 10-Year P&L
| CAD$M | Y1† | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8‡ | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee Revenue | 13.7 | 27.6 | 27.9 | 28.2 | 28.5 | 28.8 | 29.1 | 29.4 | 29.7 | 30.0 |
| Product Revenue | 74.4 | 148.9 | 150.4 | 151.9 | 153.4 | 154.9 | 156.4 | 158.0 | 159.6 | 161.2 |
| Total Revenue | 88.1 | 176.5 | 178.3 | 180.1 | 181.9 | 183.7 | 185.5 | 187.4 | 189.3 | 191.2 |
| Operating Costs | (42.3) | (79.4) | (80.2) | (81.0) | (81.9) | (82.7) | (83.5) | (84.3) | (85.2) | (86.0) |
| EBITDA | 45.8 | 97.1 | 98.1 | 99.1 | 100.0 | 101.0 | 102.0 | 103.1 | 104.1 | 105.2 |
| EBITDA Margin | 52.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| D&A | (13.8) | (19.7) | (19.7) | (19.7) | (19.7) | (19.7) | (19.7) | (19.7) | (19.7) | (19.7) |
| Financing Costs | (19.7) | (18.0) | (17.5) | (16.8) | (16.5) | (16.2) | (16.0) | (15.5) | (14.7) | (14.0) |
| Net Income | 12.8 | 41.8 | 42.3 | 43.0 | 43.8 | 44.6 | 45.4 | 40.9 | 47.0 | 47.9 |
| Free Cash Flow | 23.5 | 57.8 | 59.2 | 60.1 | 61.3 | 62.5 | 63.7 | 44.5 | 66.3 | 67.7 |
| Community Circular Royalty™ | — | 16.4 | 33.2 | 33.5 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.5 | 34.9 | 35.2 | 35.6 |
| Community Avoided Cost | 36.2 | 38.3 | 40.6 | 43.0 | 45.5 | 48.2 | 51.0 | 54.1 | 57.3 | 60.6 |
†Y1 ramp: ~250 TPD avg. ‡Y8: PEM stack replacement CAD$24.0M. Illustrative projection — 500 TPD. Not a contractual commitment.
1,000 TPD Tier 2 Configuration — Full 10-Year P&L
| CAD$M | Y1† | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8‡ | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee Revenue | 27.4 | 55.1 | 55.7 | 56.2 | 56.8 | 57.4 | 58.0 | 58.6 | 59.2 | 59.8 |
| Product Revenue | 148.9 | 297.8 | 300.8 | 303.8 | 306.8 | 309.9 | 313.0 | 316.1 | 319.3 | 322.5 |
| Total Revenue | 176.3 | 352.9 | 356.5 | 360.0 | 363.6 | 367.3 | 371.0 | 374.7 | 378.5 | 382.3 |
| Operating Costs | (84.6) | (158.8) | (160.4) | (162.0) | (163.6) | (165.3) | (166.9) | (168.6) | (170.3) | (172.0) |
| EBITDA | 91.7 | 194.1 | 196.1 | 198.0 | 200.0 | 202.0 | 204.1 | 206.1 | 208.2 | 210.3 |
| EBITDA Margin | 52.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| D&A | (28.5) | (38.0) | (38.0) | (38.0) | (38.0) | (38.0) | (38.0) | (38.0) | (38.0) | (38.0) |
| Financing Costs | (37.6) | (36.5) | (34.5) | (32.0) | (30.5) | (29.0) | (27.8) | (26.4) | (24.5) | (22.9) |
| Net Income | 25.6 | 83.6 | 84.6 | 86.0 | 87.5 | 89.2 | 90.8 | 81.8 | 94.1 | 95.8 |
| Free Cash Flow | 47.0 | 115.6 | 118.5 | 120.2 | 122.6 | 125.0 | 127.4 | 89.0 | 132.5 | 135.3 |
| Community Circular Royalty™ | — | 32.9 | 66.4 | 67.1 | 67.7 | 68.4 | 69.1 | 69.8 | 70.5 | 71.2 |
| Community Avoided Cost | 72.3 | 76.5 | 81.1 | 85.9 | 91.0 | 96.3 | 102.0 | 108.0 | 114.4 | 121.2 |
†Y1 ramp: ~500 TPD avg. ‡Y8: PEM stack replacement CAD$48.0M. Illustrative projection — 1,000 TPD. Not a contractual commitment.
Appendix B — Illustrative Balance Sheet Impact — Minimum Configuration
Illustrative snapshot — 100 TPD Minimum configuration. Reflects community balance sheet (not Carbotura SPV). PSAB basis. Not a contractual commitment or audited financial statement.
| Balance Sheet Item | Status Quo (Year 0) | With Proposed COA (Year 2) | With Proposed COA (Year 10) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental Provisions (PS 3200) PFAS + closure + legacy | CAD$85M–$310M+ | Forward accrual arrested | No new accrual from ACM stream |
| Tangible Capital Assets (PS 3150) ACM facility | — | — | — |
| No TCA recorded — Carbotura's SPV owns the facility. Zero capital obligation on community books. (PS 3150) | |||
| Disposal Budget Liability (PS 3410) Annual feedstock management expenditure | CAD$36M–$60M+/yr | CAD$5.5M/yr (TMC Fee) | CAD$6.0M/yr (TMC Fee, escalated) |
| Royalty Revenue (PS 3390) Circular Royalty™ — annual revenue | — | +CAD$6.6M/yr | +CAD$7.1M/yr |
| Net Annual Cash Position | Escalating outflow | +CAD$8.8M | +CAD$13.2M |
| Debt / Bond Issuance Required | N/A | NONE | NONE |
The community should confirm accounting treatment with its auditors prior to executing any agreement. Under PSAB, the TMC Fee is an operating expenditure (PS 3410), the Circular Royalty™ is operating revenue (PS 3390), and the facility is not a tangible capital asset of the community (PS 3150).
Appendix C — Illustrative Community Cash Flow — 100 TPD Minimum
Community perspective only (not Carbotura SPV). Illustrative projection. Not a contractual commitment.
| Cash Flow Item (CAD$M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y5 | Y10 | Y20 | Y30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC Fee Paid (operating outflow) | (5.5) | (5.5) | (5.7) | (6.0) | (6.6) | (7.3) |
| Circular Royalty™ Received | — | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 8.7 |
| Avoided Disposal Cost (vs. legacy trajectory) | 7.2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 21.4 | 37.8 |
| Net Annual Community Benefit | +1.7 | +8.8 | +10.2 | +13.2 | +22.7 | +39.2 |
| Capital Expenditure (community) | NONE | NONE | NONE | NONE | NONE | NONE |
Appendix D — Extended Tier Comparison (Years 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30)
All figures CAD$M unless noted. Illustrative projection. Not a contractual commitment.
| Metric | Year | 100 TPD | 500 TPD | 1,000 TPD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 1 | 35.3 | 88.1 | 176.3 |
| 3 | 35.7 | 178.3 | 356.5 | |
| 5 | 36.4 | 181.9 | 363.6 | |
| 10 | 38.2 | 191.2 | 382.3 | |
| 20 | 42.8 | 214.2 | 428.4 | |
| 30 | 47.9 | 239.9 | 479.8 | |
| Community Circular Royalty™ | 1 | — | — | — |
| 3 | 6.6 | 33.2 | 66.4 | |
| 5 | 6.8 | 33.8 | 67.7 | |
| 10 | 7.1 | 35.6 | 71.2 | |
| 20 | 7.9 | 39.4 | 78.7 | |
| 30 | 8.7 | 43.5 | 87.1 | |
| Community Avoided Cost | 1 | 7.2 | 36.2 | 72.3 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 40.6 | 81.1 | |
| 5 | 9.1 | 45.5 | 91.0 | |
| 10 | 12.1 | 60.6 | 121.1 | |
| 20 | 21.4 | 106.9 | 213.9 | |
| 30 | 37.8 | 189.1 | 378.2 | |
| 30-Year Combined Benefit | CAD$794M | CAD$3,955M | CAD$8,252M | |
Appendix E — ACM Terminology Glossary
All terms defined per Carbotura ACM Industry Nomenclature & Terminology Proofing Guide v3.7. Terms in bold are proprietary to the ACM industry established by Carbotura Inc.
The industrial category established by Carbotura Inc. encompassing the full Total Material Conversion process — from feedstock preparation through molecular reforming to manufactured product output. Replaces legacy waste management in regulatory and commercial classification. NAICS 325xxx/331xxx.
The long-term commercial agreement between a community feedstock supplier and Carbotura Inc. governing feedstock supply, TMC Fee, Circular Royalty™ schedule, title transfer terms, and all conditions of the 30-year partnership. Replaces legacy disposal contracts.
The per-tonne conversion royalty paid by Carbotura Inc. to the community feedstock supplier beginning in Year 2 of the COA. Calculated at 120% of the TMC Fee per tonne, escalating at 1%/year. First payment occurs 13 months after the first COD. Not a rebate, dividend, or discount.
Carbotura's branded renewable graphite product line — the highest-value output of the RevCon™ product stack. Yield: ~13% of feedstock input. Business Baseline price: USD$3,750/tonne.
The urban and landfill mining precursor protocol. Deployed when the feedstock source is a legacy deposit — landfill, coal ash pond, mining tailings, or contaminated soil. Precursor to Pregenesis. Not standard for new community feedstock streams.
Logistics operators responsible for transporting manufacturing feedstock from community collection points to the ACM facility feedstock receiving bay. Replace legacy waste haulers. Collection routes are unchanged — the destination changes from landfill to ACM facility.
The liquid extraction output of the Regenesis protocol. Managed within the ACM facility's Atmospheric Protection System. Not leachate — generated and managed entirely within the manufacturing environment, not deposited into a landfill cell.
All post-production material streams supplied under the Circular Offtake Agreement. Replaces all prior references to waste, MSW, garbage, refuse, or solid waste. Title transfers to Carbotura Inc. at the feedstock receiving bay.
The core conversion process inside the Recyclotron. Uses electromagnetic energy in an anoxic environment to disintegrate feedstock bonds at the molecular level. Operates without combustion, without flame, without ash production.
The molecularly disintegrated intermediate state produced by the Regenesis protocol — the output of the Recyclotron and the input to Regenesis MAX refining. Analogous to crude oil in a petroleum refinery. Not the feedstock; not a waste stream.
Protocol 1 — Feedstock Preparation. Separates, sizes, and conditions manufacturing feedstock for entry into the Regenesis Recyclotron. Direct feed to Regenesis is the standard mode. SMUs are buffer storage only.
The proprietary reactor at the core of the Regenesis protocol. The Recyclotron uses electromagnetic molecular reforming — never combustion, incineration, or burning. Not a furnace, incinerator, or burner.
Protocol 2 — Feedstock Disintegration. The core molecular reforming process producing OmniCrude™ from prepared manufacturing feedstock via the Recyclotron. Operates without combustion in an anoxic environment.
Protocol 3 — Materials Refining. Processes OmniCrude™ into the nine RevCon™ manufactured product categories. Equivalent in function to a refinery separating crude oil into finished products.
The outcome of the complete Circular Advantage program — the full stack of nine manufactured product categories produced by the four Carbotura protocols collectively. RevCon 3 is the conservative financial baseline used for all projections in this document. = TMC (Total Material Conversion).
The seven active revenue streams generated by the ACM facility: Renewable Graphite, Renewable Advanced Carbon Products, Renewable Refined Water (DI), Renewable Industrial Gases, Renewable Aromatics, Renewable Metals, Renewable Glass Aggregates, and Renewable Aggregates. Renewable Hydrogen is captive (Island Mode — powers the facility).
The per-tonne manufacturing service fee paid by the community to Carbotura Inc. under the Circular Offtake Agreement. Replaces all prior references to tipping fee, disposal fee, gate fee, or dumping fee. Not a waste disposal payment — a manufacturing conversion service fee. Under PSAB, classified as an operating expenditure (PS 3410).
The complete conversion of manufacturing feedstock into RevCon™ manufactured products via the four Carbotura protocols. Designed for near-100% material conversion — never described as 100% or zero-residual in absolute terms.